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I am still awake, anxious about the #Myanmarcoup and people I care deeply about, so I figured I'd write something. First, the coup was not inevitable, but it is also less unexpected and sudden than most casual observers would think.
When the tatmadaw wrote the 2008 constitution and began a transition to semi-civilian rule in 2011, the prospects for reaching a more stable and robust democracy were far from certain.
If and when the military would eventually allow constitutional amendments to remove its parliamentary and executive appointments was a key question for the international community, one that the military itself likely could not even answer at the time.
It's true that the military seemed to have it all after the liberalization began. International and domestic recognition for leading democratic reforms and the ability to step back from the hard tasks of governing while retaining its core economic interests.
Why jeopardize it all?
I think there are two key factors. One is more rational actor-y, and the other less so. First, the most critical factor is the increasing uncertainty about the military's capacity to maintain it's constitutional protections - 25% of parliamentary seats and three key ministries.
The military did not know its weakness - and the strength of the NLD - until it was dealt massive (and increasingly so) defeats by the NLD in 2015 and 2020 (despite the NLD making very little progress on it's agenda)
The deteriorating relationship between the NLD and the tatmadaw since 2015 took compromise as an avenue for military influence off the table. And the NLD's refusal to hear the military's election fraud claims was the trigger.
The military's electoral weakness and the deadlock with a dominant and recalcitrant opposition created enough uncertainty about the prospect of constitutional amendment to trigger the coup.
The military began a concerted campaign claiming election fraud immediately following its defeat in the 2020 elections (Early Nov). I saw hundreds of posts on Facebook among pro-military supporters peddling this propaganda. They were setting the pretext for Feb 1.
Second is power. Min Aung Hlaing wants to be president and can't stand being humiliated. Some of the explanation has to do with human pride given how much the military is throwing away.
