I have nothing original or new to add on the situation in Myanmar. Regardless, here are my thoughts having worked on Myanmar for the past six years.

I remember the excitement that came Myanmar’s way in 2015. A deep sense of hope and opportunity. Too quickly detached from the past. Soon the euphoria filtered down into disappointment, at least internationally, about NLD’s ability to implement real changes.

Every now & then echoes of the past resurfaced. Rumors that ASSK’s position was fragile came and went with the wind. ASSK was stubborn, economic reforms stagnant, & peace a non-starter. There was some truth to these views. Reality, however, was always a muddier median.

Myanmar struggles with deep divisions; a country with a long history that few of us truly understand. Humility was missing, something I too am guilty of. The expulsion of the Rohingya – rightfully condemned – was the last act which severed the illusion of a sparkling new Myanmar.

It should have revealed more clearly to us all that the old power structures remained. Deep-rooted beliefs, however right or wrong they may be, do not change overnight. A tragedy of expectations thus turned into a tragedy of power politics.

ASSK, politically astute as she is, made herself unassailable in elections by siding with the Tatmadaw. We will never know if this reflected her own views or some grand bargain, but that remains moot. A million suffered. By ‘defending her country’ she solidified her position.

Fast forward to today. I am lost. The Tatmadaw ushered in a democratic transition precisely when it was in its interests to do so. A web of business interests span the economy. Lifted sanctions & swaths of FDI flowed in, just as hoped. Behind the scenes little had changed.

The script for the coup was long in the making. Doubts surfaced on the election’s legitimacy a week before the vote. Failure to investigate these ‘irregularities’ cleared a path to protect the constitution, however disingenuous these statements were.

The circumstances of the coup could hardly have been better. Western governments reimposed sanctions on the military following the Rohingya crisis, leaving behind less in their political arsenal. Pandemic restrictions already restricted travel.

Yet, the rationale for the coup is unclear. Why do it via brute force? Is it a desperate bid to take back control? Unlikely; the Tatmadaw is hardly in a desperate position. Why not wait for ASSK to bow out? FDI will vanish and broad-brush sanctions loom.

The situation is scary. All it needs is a small spark. Let us hope the future treats Myanmar in these next weeks and months kindly. For at the end of the day, it is the normal people of Myanmar who will suffer, not us nor the country’s elites.