Not a virologist or epidemiologist, but I think it'll be a big challenge to persuade people that *some* level of social distancing measures need to remain even after all the >50 and clinically extremely vulnerable have been vaccinated.
The current strategy seems to be having the vaccinated to act like a shield wall, containing the virus in the less vulnerable population and prevent serious disease. This should stop healthcare systems being overwhelmed.
However, the virus will still be around.
However, the virus will still be around.
With a lack of data in whether vaccines prevent asymptomatic/low grade symptom transmission, it's not safe to assume once you've had the vaccine you will not pass it on. (Though it'll be interesting to see what comes out of UK and Israel)
Moreover, the virus bouncing around and transmitting in younger people, unchecked, will lead to a higher chance of a vaccine resistant strain emerging. Mutations are like playing the slot machine, more you pull, higher the chances of hitting the jackpot.
If the vaccines can reduce viral carriage, great news. But I suspect that limiting the size of indoor gatherings, masks in enclosed spaces, self isolating with respiratory symptoms, will need to remain.
What does this mean in the long run? Perhaps a vaccination campaign population wide, reducing the pool the virus can bounce around in.
Or our best hope might be the virus loses potency, becoming like a common cold. But as we've seen in the UK strain, that is not guaranteed
Or our best hope might be the virus loses potency, becoming like a common cold. But as we've seen in the UK strain, that is not guaranteed