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From the economic survey: India's debt situation isn't that horrible. Total debt, which includes debt taken from abroad, is about 122% of GDP - where government debt is 70%. Remember this - because most other countries have hiher govt debt and much higher private debt.
If Covid has hit us badly - and it has, even if markets are like what is wrong with you Deepak - we will recover the fastest. It's just math, though - just getting back from a steeper fall is a higher rate.
India's credit rating is unnaturally lower than the western economies, even when it's demonstrated that it deserves better. I so totally agree with this - my opinion is that the rating agencies are mostly incompetent in this regard.
Here's where I plug our podcast on why I think Credit Rating Agencies need to be made more irrelevant: https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/06/podcast-28-why-credit-rating-agencies-are-irrelevant-and-deserve-a-downgrade/
Where is the government today? In corporation tax, we have collected a lot more in December than we had last year (50% more!) but that's also because the year has been lousy so far.
Personal taxes, though, are catching up very fast. In the last four months to December, Personal tax collections have been higher than last year. Dividend taxes, higher surcharges etc. would have added to this.
Those petrol and diesel taxes, the massive boost for revenues. Think of it: 40,000 cr. a month!
Could we have a bad bank? If we have a /r/IndianBadBankBets that just makes a few people buy the lousy debt....maybe. My view is: if you allow banks to dump "bad" debt into a publicly funded institution, every debt will attempt to become "bad" to get themselves free.
How much have banks been taking your trip since 2008: the official term is "regulatory forbearance".
The unofficial term is: "How much more can I pretend I have good loans to you stupid people before I ask for a bailout"
The unofficial term is: "How much more can I pretend I have good loans to you stupid people before I ask for a bailout"
And....it begins. #Budget2021
There are lots of things. Tagore. Cricket win at Australia etc. All good so far.
Lowest active cases of 134 million?
It's a digital budget. There will be lots of digits.
There is a Atmanirbhar swach bharat yojana. Till now our swach was not atmanirbhar, but now it will be!
Mission Potion 2.0! I cannot say how much I like this.
Sorry, there is Swasthya Bharat also. I was thinking it was pronunciation mistake. We have hajaar more alphabets than Swa - but we are being atmanirbhar.
Voluntary vehicle scrapping scheme - 15 years for commercial vehicles. This is nice, I wonder what the details will be.
35,000 cr. for Covid Vaccines. More if required. At Rs. 350 per vaccine, that's 100 cr. people vaccinated - should work for everyone other than children. Nice.
Moving on to infrastructure.
Manufacturing companies need to be part of global supply chain. PLI schemes announced - 1.97 lakh cr. over 5 years.
Seven textile parks over three years. Trying to push India as a clothing manufacturer. Big employment here, so not much surprise.
Push for infra: Long term debt financing through "professionally managed institution" - setting up "Development Financial Institution" with 20,000 cr. I don't really like this but okay nothing will happen.
Asset monetization: That word we like.
Wants to monetize infra assets (roads? bridge tolls?)
Wants to monetize infra assets (roads? bridge tolls?)
InvIT to be sponsored by NHAI - five roads of 5000 cr. Powergrid will put transmission assets into Invits. Airports to be monetized. Railways to monetise DFC (through InvITs I guess).
This is actually very good in a time of low interest rates.
Sharp increase in govt capex. 5.54 lakh cr. in capex in 2021-22 (45% increase!)
Above this 200,000 cr. to states for capex.
Above this 200,000 cr. to states for capex.
No one seems to be shouting. Yet.
11,000 km of national highways. Can someone rename Koramangala to be national highway please?
600 kms of highway work each in Kerala and West Bengal. Not related to elections coming up there, of course.
This speech comes with annexures where all the juicy details are.
Future Ready Railway system. Dedicated Freight Corridors by June 2022.
PPP model again. This is gonna bloody fail. Okay that's my opinion.
107,000 cr. for railways capex. This is par for the course - we have announced this two years back.
Some new "metro" technologies it seems. Bangalore will see this in 2099, extrapolating current speed of implementing the previous ones.
Promoting competition in power. Choose between distribution companies. Choices: no power between 2 and 4pm and no power between 4pm and 6pm. ("Ensuring your kids play outside!")
Just kidding. We have done great things in power. Choice is good.
Just kidding. We have done great things in power. Choice is good.
Hydrogen energy mission. This is crap. Elon musk's speech is useful here - solar to battery is far better than a massively combustible hydrogen. Anyhow.
Indian shipping companies will get subsidies. 1624 cr. over five years. I have no context on how good this is, but interesting.
There is no Hindi Translation? #Disappointed
Rationalizing all the market stuff at one code rather than indiv acts.
Corp bond market: Government to create institution to buy investment grade debt? What?
1000 cr. to Solar Energy corp. Very good here.
50% of directors resident indians in something - I need to read thi spart of the speech.
A Bad Bank - new AMC and ARC to be created to take bad debt, with an AIF approach.
FDI in insurance up to 74%. This is also good
