1/ I'm getting a lot of questions on this topic given I'm a known $FB bull, so let's talk about $AAPL vs $FB. To be clear, my largest position is $FB but I've made most of my money buying and holding $AAPL only for a decade. I love both businesses.

2/ To understand this whole $AAPL IDFA/privacy thing, you need to understand the competitive dynamic of both businesses. Let's start with $FB:

3/ Although $FB is a great business, it has always been in a somewhat precarious position in that it is reliant on the major platforms: iOS + Android. Zuck has been well aware of that risk; and Oculus is a bet that every 15 years a new computing platform comes about and ...

4/ $FB will need to own that next platform in order to more fully protect their current business, network, and cash cow, as well as expand in other areas like payments, etc.

5/ $AAPL's cash cow as we all know is iPhone - and everything Apple does is to protect and extend the iPhone moat; even their services businesses and their wearables business are essentially extensions of iPhone.

6/ $AAPL too knows that AR/VR could be the next major computing platform, and that $FB/Oculus is a major competitor w/ a multi-year head start in building out that ecosystem of developers and users. No bueno for Apple.

7/ Compounding $AAPL's sensitivity is that Apple has never been that great at services, the very thing that ties the ecosystem together. Think iMessage, Maps, etc. If anything, $GOOG + $FB are in MUCH stronger positions there & the gap is prob widening, despite Apple's efforts.

8/ So while $FB is trying to attack $AAPL by building out great services and the next computing platform, $AAPL is attacking by going after $FB's current cash cow: advertising.

9/ While Tim Cook & $AAPL are positioning themselves as champions of user privacy, really this has nothing to do with privacy at all. If you really think Apple is all about privacy, why is it accepting $12B a year from $GOOG, a company with the same issues as $FB? Money talks.

10/ In this case, $FB is playing offense, $AAPL + even $GOOG are playing defense. IMO, the straw that breaks the camels back is when $GOOG decides to stop paying $AAPL $12B a year to be the default search on iOS. It will happen eventually, by force (anti-trust) or by choice.

11/ This will essentially be a $12B x 30 = $360B market cap transfer from $AAPL to $GOOG and a major shift in fortunes given this a -$12B of FCF for $AAPL and a +$12B of FCF for $GOOG, and it would also signal a major shift of strategy from defense to offense for Google.

12/ On IDFA specifically, $AAPL's view of what internet/advertising should be is comical + straight out of the 1980's. If you believe in an open & free internet, you cannot also believe in Apple's vision. Tim Cook says there's a price users pay when they are not the customer...

13/ But guess what? Users will pay a MUCH higher price living in the world that $AAPL envisions. I don't know the future, and I totally understand that a lot of people will disagree with everything I just said, so keep in mind that this is all just one man's opinion.