I think we're still underestimating the ramifications of Covid-19. After nearly a year immersed in the politics and policy of it, it's pretty clear to me we're never going back to how things were before. Here's how I expect things to look by 2030... [thread]

I think we'll all monitor our own health data and test ourselves for pathogens regularly — possibly daily. We'll do this at home, either on a wearable device or using a cheap and user-friendly kit that will be (almost) as commonplace as a toothbrush.

I think we'll all have an electronic record that integrates our health data. We'll get personalised advice from a medical AI, and we'll share anonymised health data for the greater good. Some developing countries will leapfrog entrenched bureaucracies in the rich world.

I think we'll all have a unique, privacy-preserving digital token that we can use to prove our health status. Faced with the risk of just one asymptomatic carrier bringing an entire country to a halt, this will make it possible for people to meet and travel safely.

I think we'll all have vaccinations and boosters several times a year, to continuously increase our collective resilience. With a bit of luck we'll find a way to self-administer these without any drama, like changing a contact lens or taking a temperature.

I think we'll make some tough choices to get new treatments and vaccines into production faster. We'll speed up regulatory approvals, use well-regulated challenge trials, and put more weight on computational analysis to indicate safety and efficacy.

I think every country will find it politically necessary to be self-sufficient in medical manufacturing. We'll treat this like other critical national infrastructure, with cross-party support for funding it and for more interventionist regulation.

I think biosecurity will be a top national security priority. The Five Eyes community (or something like it — D10? NATO?) will share more public health data and intelligence on emerging threats. Surveillance capabilities will be pivoted to global health.

I think as climate change, urbanisation and globalisation continue we will have no choice other than to adapt our way of life to a new footing of permanent vigilance. It's understandable to be apprehensive about this, but Covid-19 has changed the rules.

I'm not overly concerned about the prospect of such a big shift in our approach to public health. It will be necessary and therefore in the end it will happen; there are real risks to be sure, but I'm confident that with an open mind we can figure them out.

The thing that worries me is how long it will take - and how many more people will die - before the need for urgent and radical action sinks in. Covid-19 could easily get worse before it gets better, and more of the same won't get us where we need to be. [ends]

I penned a few more reflections on this for @timesredbox https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/1356183007527194626

And a longer piece on the importance of data in the fight against Covid-19 here https://institute.global/policy/we-need-radical-reform-our-data-infrastructure-beat-covid-19