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After watching it from a couple of angles, at high speed and slow, and sleeping on it, my view on the Dube hit is that the main point of contact was Kotkaniemi's head. Where this will be complicated is whether or not DOPS feels it was avoidable. 1/
Dube is unquestionably committed to a hit, Kotkaniemi definitely turns into that hit. If you watch at fast speed, there's not a lot of time in between those two things. But I feel--purely my opinion--the head being the main point of contact was avoidable. 2/
Dube's angle is off, but he still wants a piece of KK and ends up making the hit mostly with his arms instead of his shoulder. This should've been a two-minute penalty for illegal check to the head. But DOPS rules independent of the on-ice officials as @CassieCampbell reminded 3/
This is Rule 48.1:
"Whether the player attempted to hit squarely through the opponent’s body and the head was not "picked" as a result of poor timing, poor angle of approach, or unnecessary extension of the body upward or outward." 4/
"Whether the player attempted to hit squarely through the opponent’s body and the head was not "picked" as a result of poor timing, poor angle of approach, or unnecessary extension of the body upward or outward." 4/
If DOPS feels the attempt was to hit through the body, that KK's turn made this the result of poor timing and poor angle of approach--and that Dube didn't entend himself upward or outward--then they won't suspend. 5/
If they decide Dube didn't attempt to hit through the body, that he extended arms+intentionally picked the head, he'll be suspended. If they lean this way, injury on the play+susp history of the offender will factor into length of a suspension (KK cut, no history for Dube). 6/
My last thought is this is a play you have to watch at both high speed and in slow motion to properly assess what happened. I have no idea which way it will go; it's a close call. But my opinion is it should be a consideration that the hit is not made with the shoulder. 7/
I see that as picking the head, with Dube knowing he's not going to get the body. Whether the DOPS sees it that way... we'll see. 8/8
