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I just got a copy of the most recent Economic Report of the President and it’s pretty bad. Ex: “the Trump administration inherited a legacy of asymmetric trading arrangements.” 1/x
The trade agreements Trump inherited promote free, fair, and reciprocal trade. They generally reduced foreign tariffs by more than US tariffs. https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/trump-is-still-wrong-about-disastrous-trade-deals
It blames trade with China for “increased mortality from drug overdoses in adversely affected communities.” It doesn’t mention the impact on the country overall.
It’s kind of like going to Tampa Bay after the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and asking people how they liked the game. Except trade, unlike football, is not a zero-sum game.
"...unfair trading arrangements...have harmed, in particular, U.S. manufacturing and manufacturing employment." Nope. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS
Manufacturing layoffs declined after China joined the WTO--for the most part, overall job losses were because workers voluntarily chose to leave for better jobs. https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/us-manufacturing-layoffs-declined-after-china-joined-the-wto
"the benefits of the global trading system have at times come at the cost of America's own national interest" vs. @RonaldReagan "The expansion of the international economy is not a foreign invasion; it is an American triumph" https://www.ntu.org/foundation/detail/ronald-reagan-on-free-trade-vs-protectionism
"In Chapter 2 of the Phase One Agreement, China agreed to end the practice of requiring or pressuring U.S. companies to transfer tech," which, if accurate, will obviously encourage more companies to produce in China instead of in the U.S. or elsewhere.
"USMCA increases the regional requirements for automobiles" from 62.5% to 75%, which by the way will make it more costly to assemble cars in the U.S. relative to Asia or Europe.
"The United States will maintain its 25 percent tariff on Korean trucks through 2041."
Then they pivot back to blaming China: "The lack of valuable work reduced young males' marriage prospects." In case you think I made that up it is on page 272. PS employment and real wages increased after China joined the WTO. (cont'd)
On the other hand, I will concede that they may be correct if the only type of work that is considered "valuable" is running a sewing machine 40 hours a week for minimum wage.
"firms are moving supply chains out of China" to low-cost Asian producers despite the Trump administration threatening to impose tariffs on countries like Vietnam and negotiating a Phase One trade deal w/China that it says will make the country more welcoming to US investment.
For a more in-depth and thoughtful look at US-China trade see @scottlincicome https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/testing-china-shock-was-normalizing-trade-china-mistake
