Some reflections on a day of protests in Russia. It's become a common refrain that the authorities are "afraid" of protesters, and the only response they can come up with is brute force. While this sounds inspiring/optimistic, it's also simplistic to the point of self-delusion.

The reality is that the regime has been remarkably resourceful in its response, and has resorted to propaganda, distraction, deception, and flexible application of administrative measures (like short-term pre-emptive detentions of organisers) - as well as brute force.

Compare this to, say, Lukashenka's methods, and you'll see that the regime operates with a wide range of weapons: not just the axe, but the scalpel, and a whole collection of acupuncture needles to match. They've learned since 2011/12.

So, there is no need to underrate this regime or to assume it has lost its wits out of fear: this is overly optimistic. They are a formidable bunch compared to the sclerotic dinosaurs that walked the Kremlin halls back when brute force was the only option.

And it has to be said that even with the sclerotic dinosaurs, political change only came from within.

Doesn't mean we have to be pessimistic - just realistic.