Read on Twitter
Timehop reminded me of this study - at the time people were getting into contortions / motivated reasoning / crap statistical analysis as to why it was wrong. What does the literature say 4 years on? https://twitter.com/anonmugwump/status/826183045610876930
This 2020 study established there was no statistically significant relationship between refugee immigration and crime experienced by German natives, including sub categories of crime (burglary, rape, sexual assault). http://ftp.iza.org/dp12469.pdf
This 2017 study said much the same. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/175407/1/1014427762.pdf Further breakdown here: https://twitter.com/anonmugwump/status/990509831781015552?s=21
It was borne out by the official statistics that followed (ht @s8mb) https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-crime-rate-fell-to-lowest-level-in-decades-in-2018/a-48162310 and https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/german-crime-rate-fall-despite-rapefugee-fears-n6xxjlbc7 - see my tweet here as well: https://twitter.com/anonmugwump/status/1054376299509280768?s=21
Same results in Italy. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/03/03/has-immigration-really-led-to-an-increase-in-crime-in-italy/
This isn’t confined to Europe by the way, this study for example looks at the US and finds the same. https://twitter.com/anonmugwump/status/1054374095985537025
Again, this isn’t surprising, see this thread / links here. https://twitter.com/anonmugwump/status/825432509328547840
As Sam says, will this lead to the nay sayers eating any humble pie or making the same arguments whenever this next happens? Doubt it. https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/993933337860411393
