We have made extraordinary progress over the month of January, but let’s #holdfirm. We still have weeks to go to suppress the virus and get the level of infection and case numbers as low as possible. We’ve shown we can do it; let’s keep it up. 1/10

We’ve driven the 5-day average case count down from a peak of over 6800 cases per day in early January, to 1278 cases per day now. Great, but still too high, the same as the October peak, but we can get it right down if we maintain our efforts. 2/10

The 14-day cumulative incidence is down from 1530 per 100000 to 537 per 1000000, again great progress, but the peak in October was 300 per 100,000, we entered December at 80 per 100000, and were as low as 3 per 100000 in July. A way to go yet. 3/10

Test positivity is below 10%. Now that testing of asymptomatic close contacts has resumed, we may see an increase in case numbers in the coming week. Don’t be disheartened or distracted by this, if we keep doing what we have been doing they’ll start to fall again. 4/10

The number in hospital has fallen significantly, the number in ICU has plateaued; importantly the number of new admissions per day is down. Each number is an individual story of suffering and trauma; each admission you prevent is worth the sacrifices you’ve made. 5/10

We can see in the data our collective efforts to reduce our contacts to a minimum, the average number of close contacts for adult cases is close to 2 - compare with late October (we got to 2.6 and immediately drifted upwards) - now we’re at 2 and keeping it there. 6/10

Incidence in those aged 65 and older, and especially those aged 85 and older, is worryingly high, but is now decreasing. We’ve seen a large number of cases in long-term residential care. 7/10

The level of disease in the community in recent weeks is at least three times what it was in March-May 2020, but we’ve seen similar case numbers in LTRC - they are better protected, but at very high levels of community transmission we just can’t keep the virus out. 8/10

The latest modelling data shows that, on our current trajectory, we could get to 200-400 cases per day by the end of February; let’s make it a shared objective to get there, and then take cautious strategic steps forward. 9/10

The summary: depending on the measure you take, incidence now is one-third to one-fifth of what it was at the turn of the year, but remains at least an order of magnitude higher than we need it to be; if we maintain our efforts we’ll get there. 10/10