Disclaimer: All the information provided here is based on my learnings and experiences, ABSOLUTELY not a recommendation. You MUST remember that SPAC warrants can go to 0 if there won't be a merger. That being said it is a risky space but very rewarding if played intelligently..
My interest (niche) is into SPACs searching for a merger is because of below reasons (1) Surprise factor: No one could have guessed $ACTC - Proterra, $CCIV - Lucid (potentially) etc. (2) These days merger are happening quickly, so, cash won't get stuck for 1.5-2 yrs
(c) There is not much pumping/dumping for SPACs searching for a merger unless it's an overhyped ones. (d) No retailer can afford ~300 SPACs, and as a result prices cannot be manipulated (e) I used to invest into growth stocks $SQ $SE etc. and have no shortage of patience (key).
How I pick warrants (a) I sort SPACs based on trust value (>$200M), excellent management and target focus ( http://spactrack.net ) (b) I make sure to read S-1, particularly proposed business section, of most of the SPACs having a decent cap
(c) Once I know what all SPACs I'm interested, I go through their warrants chart just to get a feel of where it opened, how much it spiked, where is the volume consolidation (bit tricky for warrants) (d)I scan through pre unit split SPACs frequently (at least once or twice a day)
(e) I never ever buy warrants the day units split because if it's a hyped SPAC there is always a spike (f) Most of the time I wait for red days to gauge the strength of an SPAC and respective warrants (a simple approach to test people's conviction towards any stock)
(g) I don't care much about the absolute price of warrants ($0.50 or $1 or $2 etc.). If it's a good one and closer to bottom (there is no NAV for warrants), I buy. That being said, I avoid buying warrants above $2.5ish and below $1. Again, buying at near bottom is my approach.
(h) Commons of quality SPACs at near NAV is undoubtedly a safer approach, but, many times, unless there is a rumor/DA they don't move at all. However, there is always some movement with warrants. I love volatility. (i)I trim my warrants regularly and add into sleeper quality ones
(j) I'm heavily diversified (EVs, fintech, healthcare, sustainability etc.) and that's my security. However, irrespective of the sector, I try to pick quality ones (k) Despite of all the DD, no one can say with 100% surety that an SPAC will pick a sexy merger $IPOC $PACE
This is another reason that I'm diversified. Assume, if $IPOD or $IPOF or $PSTH will pick a not-so-sexy merger then without a doubt warrants will nosedive but then also it will have only little impact to my portfolio. Risk minimization is equally important as profit maximization
(l) One can always create his/her own mix of quality SPAC warrants and distribute funds accordingly (m) I do not allocate funds evenly, as, within quality SPACs some are my favorite and receive more love ($$)
(n) I'm a huge proponent of sharing information, if it's a quality SPAC let others know so that they can also do their DD. I absolutely hate the ******up mentality of some of these pumpers (having a good size followers) who announce that "let me load and then will announce"
At the end of the day, this is a sheer speculation based on our best judgement. If anyone says that he/she is 100% sure that $IPOF will pick a unicorn then that's a bs. Other than $IPOF management, no one knows whom they gonna merge.
(o) Most of the time, I use a limit order to buy warrants because its volatile. (p) Upon rumor, if I (don't care what others say) don't like the associated merger name, I dump after hours/pre market. If it's a good one, I trim to some extent and wait for a DA and
If it's a great one, I don't do anything because then I plan to hold it till merger and sometimes post merger too. That being said, there are very few which I don't trim. In the current lot, $IPOE (SoFi) is the only one which I'm not trimming. All my warrants/shares are intact.
(q) I do have units and commons of quality SPACs too, though, I prefer warrants. Many times warrants are trading at a ridiculously insane value that it makes not much sense to buy, like $AGCWW (~$5 without any rumor). This is insanely overvalued.
However, $AGC is a quality SPAC. So, for such an SPAC, I buy commons and wait patiently to get a hold of warrants. Also, $AGCB from the same management is equally good, so, I'm buying their warrants and commons too.
Summarizing, SPAC warrants are very rewarding but very risky space, so, invest wisely. Do your DD because then only you will build a conviction. At the end of the day, it's your hard earned $$ (not so hard earned if from $GME rally ;). If you see a lot of pumping, be skeptical.
There is nothing wrong in taking advantage of pumping but know when to get out, else, you will be holding a bag load of s*** dumped on you by others. Always remember, someone will lose money then only someone will make & no body is here to lose money :).
SPAC is an amazing sector to invest into winners at a pre-IPO price and unless there will be any policy change/intervention, this sector is going to boom further in the near future. Imo, 2020 was just a preview.
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