I've been working on a revamped process for RB's and one of the things that has caught my attention is RB breakout age.

Does it matter?

Let's dive in.

I use top 12 seasons as a hit for RBs

The reason I use top 12 is because top 24 is too easy to hit. Basically be a healthy starting RB on your team and you get to be a top 24 RB in any given season

Also, the guys that make the RB2 cut-off arent "guys I want on my dynasty team"

Guys like Ronald Jones and JD McKissic arent guys I want to be holding long term in dynasty.

TLDR RB2 production is meh.

Anyway.... I have 200 RB's in my database with a breakout age that have been drafted rounds 1-7 from 2003-2019

54 of which have hit a single top 24 season.

54/200 = 27%

Here is how it breaks down by BOA.

There are some pretty clear tiers overall.

Age 18
Age 19 and 20
Age 21+

How does this look once you filter for draft capital?

Here are the day 3 picks.

Here are the round 3 picks.

Here are the round 2 picks.

Here are the round 1 picks.

Here is a summary chart.

It should be noted that none of these threads I post are "deciding" factors. I wont write off player X for not hitting this singular metric. They are all just pieces that build a puzzle.

I prefer younger breakout ages but I dont think that having an age 21 breakout age on its own is a death sentence for instance.

(looking at you Najee-stans).