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The U.K. now expects 300,000 people to move to Britain from Hong Kong after London offered a pathway to citizenship to over 70 percent of the territory’s population. Clearly one of the least discussed decisions by Johnson relative to longterm impact. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/u-k-expects-300-000-people-to-leave-hong-kong-move-to-britain
If Britain benefits from substantial Hong Kong migration, as I hope, it will also be better able to take advantage of the trading benefits of joining CPTTP thanks to their connections and knowledge of the region U.K. business as a whole falls short in. https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/UK-to-apply-for-TPP-membership-Monday-for-bridge-to-Asia
The existing Hong Kong born population in the UK is just over 100,000. The citizenship path is open to about 70% of Hong Kong’s population and could trigger capital outflows of $75 billion from Hong Kong over five years, estimates Bank of America Corp. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/china-targets-u-k-s-hong-kong-passports-over-citizenship-plan-11611917418
Worth mentioning U.K. estimates have a habit of being wrong — immigration from new EU member states in 2003 were put at a comic 15,000 a year. With Home Office estimates leaving out intangibles like fear or freedom we could be undercounting again.
. @Cebr_uk: “Almost 800,000 individuals took part in the protests out of a population of 7.5 million, more than 10% of the population. Our cautious assumption of the number of potential migrants is 300,000. Our less cautious assumption is 1 million.” https://cebr.com/reports/uk-gdp-could-be-boosted-by-12-40-billion-from-migration-of-skilled-hong-kongers/
. @Cebr_uk: “UK GDP could be boosted by £12-40 billion from 300,000 migration of skilled Hong Kongers.” https://cebr.com/reports/uk-gdp-could-be-boosted-by-12-40-billion-from-migration-of-skilled-hong-kongers/
