Read on Twitter
"So if you manage to get, say, 85 per cent of people to take it and it turns out to be 90 per cent effective, that's still 25 per cent of people who could die from it, which is a lot of people," - this seems pessimistic to me https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/30/exclusive-social-distancing-may-have-remain-place-year/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AwntH7JxzkWP
In the paper they assume take up is 95% in care homes, 85% in 50+ age group, and lower for younger people. I'm expecting take up more in the region of 90% across the population and 95%+ in vulnerable groups
The ONS opinions and lifestyle survey finds that of over 80s 97% were fairly or very likely to have a jab and only 1% were fairly or very unlikely to do so.
The picture is very similar for people in their 60s and 70s, with willingness to get for these groups increasing with age from 93% up to 96%. And unwillingness falling with age from 3% down to 1%.
The % willing falls a little for people in their 50s but it's still in the 86-87% level and unwillingness is still quite a bit below 10%.
It's true that enthusiasm wanes among the rest of the population with 76% of those below 50 and not vulnerable very or fairly likely to get the jab. But still only 12% say they are fairly or very unlikely to get it.
Provided the gov doesn't mess up its communication campaign in favour of vaccination I don't see why the % of people willing to get the vaccine couldn't rise further. It would not surprise me if the 76 % figure turned out to be closer to 90%.
And as people see the good the vaccine is doing I think many more will jump on board, even some of those currently saying they're fairly unlikely to get the jab may well be persuaded.
Here's the link to the survey results if you're interested: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/29january2021#attitudes-to-covid-19-vaccination
