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LATEST OPINIUM / OBSERVER POLLThe three-point Tory lead is a shift from our previous poll, but roughly in line with what we have seen elsewhere over the past fortnight.
Voting intention has been stubbornly bouncing around neck-and-neck since last Summer, HOWEVER… https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1355606712565125120
…one trend that has stood out over that period is that Starmer’s approval rating has been declining fairly consistently.
In our latest poll his net approval rating is down to +9. This is his (joint) lowest yet, and down from a peak of +28 at the start of June.
In our latest poll his net approval rating is down to +9. This is his (joint) lowest yet, and down from a peak of +28 at the start of June.
Interestingly, Starmer’s approval is actually holding up better among Tory voters than Labour voters. His net approval among…
2019 Tory voters:
Last June: -2
Now: -17
2019 Lab voters:
Last June: +78
Now: +35
Everyone else:
Last June: +28
Now: -6
2019 Tory voters:
Last June: -2
Now: -17
2019 Lab voters:
Last June: +78
Now: +35
Everyone else:
Last June: +28
Now: -6
We have also been tracking how views of him have changed across 14 leadership characteristics.
The biggest drops have been on views of his decisiveness, his likeability, and whether he is a strong leader.
This might indicate that the Tory attack line is cutting through.
The biggest drops have been on views of his decisiveness, his likeability, and whether he is a strong leader.
This might indicate that the Tory attack line is cutting through.
The chart shows net score – so for example, last June 22% more people agreed that he has a strong leader than disagreed. Now 8% more agree than disagree - a 14 point drop.
I battled for ages to try and get this into a chart that looked good, this was the best I got to.
I battled for ages to try and get this into a chart that looked good, this was the best I got to.
While he is down on every metric, the drop has been less on how people view his trustworthiness, whether he has the nations best interests at heart, and his ability to “get things done”.
His weaknesses are the same as they were in June, although a couple have now dropped into negative territory- specifically that he “has views similar to my own” and that he “represents what most people think”
The same number of people agree as disagree that he is brave
The same number of people agree as disagree that he is brave
So how worried should Labour be?
Personally, and despite everything I have just said, I don’t think it’s worth getting worked up about at all yet.
Despite the drop, these are still really good numbers!
Personally, and despite everything I have just said, I don’t think it’s worth getting worked up about at all yet.
Despite the drop, these are still really good numbers!
As @bnhw_ brilliant article noted, most leaders of the opposition see a drop off in their approval ratings as time goes on.
The fact that he still holds net positive figures this long into his leadership is actually a really positive sign
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2021/01/almost-year-his-leadership-keir-starmer-stalling
The fact that he still holds net positive figures this long into his leadership is actually a really positive sign
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2021/01/almost-year-his-leadership-keir-starmer-stalling
While the direction of travel might be concerning, it would still be odd for Labour to be more worried about a +9 approval rating than the Tory’s are about Johnsons’ -8 rating.
So I think Starmer’s approval ratings are more than good enough for him to become PM, but…
So I think Starmer’s approval ratings are more than good enough for him to become PM, but…
… what happens over the next 12 months will be crucial.
As we move out of the pandemic he will need to develop a narrative around the biggest problems facing Britain, and how a Keir Starmer government would be best placed to fix them.
As we move out of the pandemic he will need to develop a narrative around the biggest problems facing Britain, and how a Keir Starmer government would be best placed to fix them.
Ultimately, his ability to do that will likely decide whether he can win the next election (depending on what happens in Scotland, obvs, because that could still send everything completely nuts).
Loads of other fascinating stuff in this week's results at the link below or @OpiniumResearch
Including the fact that very few think that the government have done all they reasonably can to tackle the pandemic. https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-6th-january-2021-2-2/
Including the fact that very few think that the government have done all they reasonably can to tackle the pandemic. https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-6th-january-2021-2-2/
Also going to set up an automation for every other Saturday that just replies to my tweets with "*Keir" as the chances of me getting through a thread without cocking it up somewhere are ~=0.
