So I can't stop thinking about how I missed on #JustinJefferson. I'm not talking about the talent part, but the situation part.

I specifically remember being asked about him on a pod and dismissing him because the #Vikings refused to bless #StefonDiggs with >100 tgts...

1/

....so why would they give a rookie enough to be fantasy relevant?

Logically sound, but missed the mark for several reasons. After looking at a bunch of different #Vikings offensive numbers the past few years, they point to a couple possible explanations....

2/

....although the conclusion is far from simple or predictive, I do think it's got some good nuggets to take away.

My initial idea was that the Vikings defense was much weaker and therefore the passing attempts rose. After all, they did have two Top 10 fantasy WRs.

3/

Although the defense was definitely worse this year, it didn't necessarily correlate to a rise in passing attempts.

Those numbers...

Defense - PtsAgnst...NFL Rank
2020 - 475...29th
'19 - 303...6th
'18 - 341...9th
'17 - 252...1st

Obviously 2020 stands out.

4/

Other Def Numbers:
YardsPerPlay(Rank)...YdsPerPaAtt...YdsPerRuAtt

'20 - 6.1(27th)...7.3(30th)...4.6(26th)
'19 - 13th...7th....18th
'18 - 4th...4th...8th
'17 - 1st...2nd...5th

Again, pretty stark difference between the 2020 defense and the previous years

5/

So I figured the attempts would be higher to a degree. But they weren't that crazy.

#KirkCousins Pass Attempts (Rank):
'20 - 516 (15th)
'19 - 444 (24th)
'18 - 606 (4th)
'17 - 540 (8th)

**Note Cousins came in 2018, Keenum in 2017

6/

Now, there IS a big difference between 2019&20, with a jump of 62 pass attempts. This leads to part of my conclusion you'll see, but 2017/18 had higher attempts as well, so I wanted to look into other factors that might affect the bottom line for the WRs this year

7/

My first thought was market share. Here's how it broke down:

Targets to....WRs(%)/TEs(%)/RBs(%)

'20 - 285(58.8%)/107(22.1)/93(19.2)
'19 - 209(47.3)/106(24.0)/127(28.7)
'18 - 397(67.3)/94(15.9)/99(16.8)
'17 - 316(60.5)/97(18.6)/109(20.9)

8/

Keep in mind there were different coordinators through a lot of this.

2017 - Shurmur
'18 - DeFillipo
'19 - Stefanski
'20 - Kubiak

That will change again this year. *But* the one thing that won't change is the Head Coach and his philosophy about winning.

9/

But before we bring that in, a few other pieces of the puzzle to consider.

#KirkCousins Intended Air Yards Rank per @NextGenStats:
2020 - 19th
'19 - 25th
'18 - 29th

Yards/Attempt per @pfref:
'20 - 2nd
'19 - 7th
'18 - 24th

10/

It's worth noting that the Intended Air Yards was a bit of a spike when you consider that a couple tenths of a yard is a big improvement year over year and he quite a bit in 2020.

11/

Because the main reason #AdamThielen was top ten was his insane TD rate, I wanted to also check the total number of TDs the offense scored versus previous years.

While pass attempts didn't jump as compared to pre-2019 numbers, the defense *was* much worse.

12/

It would stand to reason that they simply needed to score more. Here are their TDs scored.

PaTDs...RuTDs...TotalTDs

2020 - 35...20...55
'19 - 26...19...45
'18 - 30...9...39
'17 - 25...15...40

That tells us a little something as well.

13/

From '17-'19 when the defense was much better they averaged 41 TDs per year, but that jumped 34% and 14 total TDs in 2020.

That's a pretty big number.

So what's the conclusion? I have a few.

14/

The 2019 WR market share seems to be an anomaly. Thielen was hurt and the attempts were low because of a good defense.

I think recency bias all got a hold of me (us?) and made me think there wouldn't be enough targets to the WRs overall.

15/

Mike Zimmer DOES want to run the football. He would be perfectly happy with 450 attempts. That isn't going to change. If the defense improves, I would expect the attempts to drop in 2021.

There is still room for two productive WRs. But two in the top 10? Maybe not.

16/

The Vikings - regardless of coordinator - have been pretty rock solid on how often they want to throw to their TEs and RBs regardless of overall attempts. Rises or drops in attempts seemed to make the WRs more volatile rather than the TEs/RBs.

17/

At this point, purely speculating from looking at all of this I am of the belief that:

- Justin Jefferson is so good he demands targets, and is possibly the cause of the I/AY spike
- The defense may get better in '21, but I wouldn't expect a dominant squad

18/

- the recency bias from a weird 2019 made me look at the wrong things
- Adam Thielen isn't high on my list of guys I want to target this year
- If the defense improves (how could it not?), the attempts drop, then Thielen's TD rate drops and he takes a backseat to JJ

19/

I think JJ is good enough that the offense could/should/did change because he moves the meter.

In hindsight, basing '20 off of an outlier '19 should've been avoidable, but I didn't see it.

I'm excited for his chances in 2021.

Hope you enjoyed my mind's ramblings

20/20