I worry that we are losing sight of the scale of the pandemic here in Ontario. We are (rightly) encouraged by the last two weeks of case reductions in the province (today we reported 2063 new cases) but we need to remember that this is still an unacceptably high incidence 1/

First some background; remember when we were so concerned in October as the 7-day trend of confirmed cases reached a higher point than it had during the first wave? That was ~600 cases/day (~3.5x fewer than we had today). Or in early November when we reached 1000 cases/day? 2/

At that point @fordnation @celliottability & @TBayMOH implemented the disastrous colour-coded framework which lead to the need for province-wide lockdowns within two months. https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/1355536484586106880 3/

Remember how they ignored Dr Shelley Deeks and Public Health Ontario's recommendation that "lockdowns" should be implemented at a weekly incidence rate of 25/100,000? 4/ https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/11/11/ontario-rejected-its-own-public-health-agencys-advice-when-it-launched-its-colour-coded-plan-for-covid-19-restrictions.html

Right now according to @imgrund's analysis only 9 PHUs in the province meet the PHO threshold to not be in full lockdown (based purely on incidence rates, admittedly it's more complicated when you add in other metrics, but the point stands) 5/ https://twitter.com/imgrund/status/1355518315708481536

What I'm trying to get to is that what we were doing in the fall didn't work. It's cost >6,000 pple their lives so far. Going back to that failed plan or minor modifications of that plan isn't going to work. We can't just go back to the benchmarks that lead us to this position 6/

Thank you to @jkwan_md and @imgrund for their excellent work with data visualizations and statistical analysis 7/

Fin