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so @AlexBerenson is concerned that with 4 weeks of reporting, there are 285 deaths reported to VAERS in people who received COVID vaccines – is that a lot?
as @KevinMKruse says, let’s dig in (with some simple googling and back of the envelope math) https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1355298437311438852
as @KevinMKruse says, let’s dig in (with some simple googling and back of the envelope math) https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1355298437311438852
first of all, as put excellently in the book Factfulness, when some gives you a number, ask for another number
285 deaths could be a lot, how many people have received the COVID vaccine? about 21.7 million first doses
so about 1.31 per 100k https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-28-21/h_b0e9d3cfd77356d33207d672d73d121c
285 deaths could be a lot, how many people have received the COVID vaccine? about 21.7 million first doses
so about 1.31 per 100k https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-01-28-21/h_b0e9d3cfd77356d33207d672d73d121c
how many people are dying of COVID in the US per day?
it varies but in the past 4 weeks, about 0.9-1 per 100k *per day*
it varies but in the past 4 weeks, about 0.9-1 per 100k *per day*
from the main Pfizer study in NEJM we don’t expect any protection from the vaccine until about 10 days after the first dose, plus of course some people who get vaccinated will already unknowingly have COVID
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
so I’ll just say in the first 10 days, we should expect somewhere in the ballpark of 10 per 1000k deaths, just from COVID, which is much more than 1.31 per 100k in 4 weeks.
and people will still die of other things (eg heart attacks, car crashes, diarrhea). but how many?
and people will still die of other things (eg heart attacks, car crashes, diarrhea). but how many?
how many Americans typically die per day? in 2019, about 2.85 million Americans dies, for an annual rate of 869.7 per 100k, or 2.38 per 100k per day
from @CDCgov WONDER: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
from @CDCgov WONDER: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
of course, not all deaths after vaccination are reported to VAERS. and the demographics of who has gotten vaccinated so far are complicated – lots of older nursing home residents, lots of young & healthier health care workers
but we should expect somewhere in the ballpark of 2.4 per 100k deaths per day, so being concerned about 1.31 per 100k deaths in 4 weeks is silly
and once again, I understand why he's a former reporter
and once again, I understand why he's a former reporter
Alex is anything different with this vaccine, say, a historic pandemic?
also just speculating but maybe, just maybe, people are more likely to report post vaccine events this year with a new, pandemic vaccine that has been politicized by people who arent NYT reporters
literally the opposite of what I did
