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New #MOSen fav/unfav out on @HawleyMO this morning via the indefatigable @missouriscout will give a much-needed correction to MSM spin on the subject. Poll was done by @TitusBond, probably MO’s most prolific pollster.
Hawley’s fav/unfav is comfortably above water at 46/40. He’s above water in every DMA except St. Louis, where he’s 40/46. In Repub breadbaskets of SW and SEMO he’s net +25 and +27, respectively.
Hawley is net positive among women voters; he’s +11 among men and at 50% in that demo. Among unaffiliated voters, after taking the worst the national and MO MSM can dish out for weeks, his deficit among unaffiliated voters is in single digits (-8).
Hawley dominates among the Republican base of Very Conservative voters, 77/12, and he’s +15 among Somewhat Conservative voters.
If you want to see a highly unpopular Missouri politician today, you need look no further than @nicolergalloway: State Auditor who’s now in cycle after having been blown out of the water in 2020 #MOGov race.
Galloway’s fav/unfav is 14 points worse, on net, than Hawley’s at 32/40. She’s net negative in every DMA except KC (+4) and is underwater in St. Louis Dem stronghold, -7. She’s net negative among unaffiliated voters at 31/40.
Women don’t like @nicolergalloway (-6) and men really don’t like her (-10). She’s -26 and -23 among Very Conservative voters and Somewhat Conservative voters, respectively. And among liberals she’s only +11. These last are particularly devastating.
So what’s happening here? The short is that, despite weeks-long efforts, @HawleyMO remains safely popular in MO. He’s impregnable in a primary and does well among all necessary demo’s to win in the General.
If they can find a candidate against him in 2024 they’ll be choosing from a decimated bench (see: statewide General Election results, 2020) and running in defense of a Democrat President in one of the most conservative states in the country.
I have no doubt that liberal Democrats like @ProjectLincoln will convince some politically credulous donors to part with a bunch of money in a largely hopeless attempt to beat @HawleyMO.
If they fund a good candidate like a Jamie Harrison (unlikely), they’ll lose by 10-12. If they fund a poor-to-generationally-awful candidate like they did with Amy McGrath, they’ll lose by 20 and possibly more.
On @nicolergalloway I’ve been predicting for years she’d find herself in exactly this position: financially depleted, wrecked statewide perceptuals, personally exhausted, and with a bunch of Rs champing at the bit to take out the last statewide D standing.
Galloway’s in big big trouble and I’d be surprised to see her hold, on assuming Rs avoid a very nasty primary.
A couple other things: these numbers mirror other, non-public numbers I’ve seen recently. They are legit. Also: I’ve been correct on every single one of these points for years now. Every one.
DISCLAIMER: I was a paid advisor to Hawley’s 2018 #MOSen campaign, when he defeated @clairecmc by 7 points in a Democrat wave election.
