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Over the last few days we've looked at the effect of playing professional rugby games in empty stadia. Are more points scored? More tries? How about penalties? Or yellow cards. We've already looked at @PRO14Official and @top14rugby, and today it is the turn of @premrugby.
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The first observation to make is @premrugby data set is much larger than @top14rugby sample - 90 games, as opposed to only 25 games from France. This gives us more confidence in the accuracy of the data. Unsurprisingly, we see trends similar to those in @PRO14Official rugby
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There has been a major narrowing in points difference to only 2.76pts per game. Where home sides - on average - used to score a try-a-game more, "ghost games" see home sides manage less than half that. But the biggest difference is in the balance of cards & penalties awarded.
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Referees are no just as likely to award a yellow card against the home team, as the away team. Pre-covid, there were (almost) twice as likely to card an away player as a home player. There has also been a shift in penalties awarded.
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We now see a more level playing field for the away team, whereas pre-Covid, away teams were - on average - conceding more than one penalty per game *more* than home teams.
We'll leave you all to speculate on why these trends have emerged!
Thanks for reading.
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We'll leave you all to speculate on why these trends have emerged!
Thanks for reading.
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