Thread by @Markets_thinker, As mentioned in the previous post, we expected a rough month-end week [...]

As mentioned in the previous post, we expected a rough month-end week and we have been staying cautious going into this week, taking profit on many trades and raising some cash. $QQQ $SPY

But we were not extremely aggressive in selling until today because I was comfortable in riding out temporary changes in liquidity heading into next month, and did not want to unnecessarily unload investments with strong fundamentals but with a short-term set back. $QQQ $SPY

What alarmed me was the spillover effect of the $GME saga in that: 1) it triggered a wave of HF degrossing, with the market being held up by asset managers & retail guys going business as usual, but started having negative impact on broader liquidity and volatility $QQQ $SPY

This becomes an obvious worry as solid companies that beat & beat in ER get sold-the-news, e.g. $AMD $FB

2) the DTCC clearing issue with brokerages put severe stress on many popular retail brokerages, and if their balance sheet get strained, we could see large unwinding & shutting down of many customer margin accounts and therefore a large negative impact on the street. $QQQ $SPY

3) it is obvious that many quanty/ professional institutions are joining the field day in WSB stocks, as BBG article today highlighted that retail flow was in fact much more balanced than media suggested. $QQQ $SPY

When the tide falls and these quant/ professional houses turn the other way, we will see another carnage, and possibly a stampede of retail investors rushing to the door, like the HFs did this week. $QQQ $SPY

4) either way someone is gonna get hurt - it may be HFs, or brokers, or retail, or leveraged quants, but we will see short term volatility from the massacre. $QQQ $SPY

Finally, with $QQQ 3-5% from ATH, the opportunity cost to degross now and wait out to pick up discounted growth stocks is relatively low. I can aggressively build back my book, which still has a few high growth names that will capitalise on a normalised market. $SPY

The large caps I still own: $AMZN, $CRM - waiting for a breakout from them. Both look technically fine to hold through the turmoil.

High conviction medium caps: $PINS, $SNAP, $SQ, $VEEV, $DOCU.

$PINS and $SNAP ER next week and bullish for event.

$SQ bitcoin tailwind + Cash App could benefit from competitor failure

$VEEV and $DOCU - in a very similar tight range, not worried and like their niche

Less conviction names that I own because of low market correlation - they tend to move in their own way and often against the market direction: $DBX and $NCNO

Finally $FSLY. I think there is a nice momentum forming for this stock and it is yet to properly fly.

Trades today:
$AAPL - We got out above 135. The stock really struggled after earnings because 1) weak-ish guidance expecting a normal-ish Q1 and 2) broader market de-grossing putting AAPL as a crowd favourite to unwind. The chart looks very weak.

$MAXR - This is a tactical sell because of weak technical reasons. We are in degrossing mode so banking the gain on this does not hurt.

$HUBS - This was one of my less convinced names for long term and the chart looked very weak forming a head & shoulder pattern. I will do more fundamental work around this, but at the time of sell it was at a loss.

$TTD - We got in on this at $750 and $800, maybe rather too quickly after the year end fall. It became my primary degrossing target because I now think it is in the B phase of the ABC correction pattern and I rushed the buying.

$AMD - simply hit my SL at $87. A failed ER play. Strong earnings, but bad market action, meaning we get out and live to fight another day.

$TWLO - we were up 20% since November. It's a hesitant tactical sell, and we should be back soon.

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