It’s I sit here and sip a drink to cap a ridiculous week of capitalisming and read through my tweets I see that I have done nothing but shitpost so here’s a hopefully useful thread about today 1/idk a bunch

2. So why did we yoyo up and down 15 or so percent today and what does this mean going forward which is always just an educated guess I can’t move markets esp BTC

3. Asia was properly nuking btc all night into the Deribit expiry as they are inclined to do which for the most part was a fairly orderly process about 30 min after expiry though Elon decided to remind the whole world he’s into bitcoin and slam a B on his twitter bio

4. Were living in a market phase where all news is juiced meaning everyone a dog hunting for a bone and if they see one they go rabid and run with it everything overshoot

5. BTC was pretty heavy on short interest relative to Longs going into this perp funding had been negative for a bit of time leading in so when people started running btc for Elon clout farming shorts got blown out quick

6. This continued to feed on itself and ratchet up quarts and continue liq fest until funding got jacked the other way longs paying 2 bps an hour and quarts getting something like 175bps swing over

7. This is not sustainable if cash doesn’t come in and buy the index you just can’t remain elevated on that margining

8. So what does Us cash session do! Largely nothing because kraken and Coinbase were hosed and cme expiry was top of mind also tradfin was melting down all day and algo monkeys were ratcheting it along

9. So cash isn’t saving you and your levered longs are heavy and we slowly unwind

10. We basically did a whole quarterly market cycle in 24hrs from inflating a bubble to popping it which is amazing and kudos to you all

11. Financing is still strong but not crazy and maybe cash still comes in but what was interesting was how isolated the move was to just btc we’re seeing more dispersion in markets now and I think that should help separate the fund leaders from the pack