Investors in almost everything can reasonably expect their gains to average well above what they could get if they took no risk. A stock portfolio might average 6% or 8% a year, more than bonds or savings accounts. 1/6

But really, no investment can be rationally expected to do significantly better than any other once adjusted for risk. Why? Because if one was, it would get crowded and whatever value it could produce diluted until it was no longer significantly better. 2/6

This is why I opposed bailouts for travel companies throughout the pandemic. Their owners made good money for many years and in exchange they took the risk that a global event would devastate their industry. That's the deal. 3/6

Sure, it's not their fault they lost money. But investment isn't about fault. Bailouts help owners in proportion to how much they own. Companies can't suffer. I'm all for helping employees. If planes are worth flying, someone will and they'll need pilots and mechanics. 4/6

And if the planes aren't worth flying, it's incredibly dumb to fly unprofitable planes around as an employment boosting scheme. Boost unemployment and other direct cash aid instead. In the past few days, some hedge funds lost a whole lot of money in an arguably unfair way. 5/6

But that's the deal with investing. The pandemic wasn't fair either, and lots of retail investors lost a lot. High returns mean high risk. There is no way out of that. If there was, everybody would be rich. 6/6