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Who's ready for a spicy take?
D.J. Chark is the next Calvin Ridley & is a LOCK for a top 15 finish with TLaw at the helm. Checkout this chart I made comparing Charks 2020 season with Calvin Ridleys 2019 season via advanced metrics.
THREAD
@MyFantasyLeague
@TrueNorthFFB
D.J. Chark is the next Calvin Ridley & is a LOCK for a top 15 finish with TLaw at the helm. Checkout this chart I made comparing Charks 2020 season with Calvin Ridleys 2019 season via advanced metrics.
THREAD
@MyFantasyLeague
@TrueNorthFFB
What really stands out to me is that chark is actually the âsuperior athleteâ. Not shown in the graph are their weight, height, hand size etc.
Well
Chark: 6â 3â, 199lbs, 9 ÂŒ inch hands
Ridley: 6â 1â, 189 lbs, 9 â inch hands
He also ranks higher in both burst & speed score
Well
Chark: 6â 3â, 199lbs, 9 ÂŒ inch hands
Ridley: 6â 1â, 189 lbs, 9 â inch hands
He also ranks higher in both burst & speed score
Despite the almost identical target volume, Charks CTR (Catchable Target Rate) was just 70.2%, a full 12.6% less than Ridley in 2019. So while Chark vastly underperformed Ridleyâs WR27 finish in 2019, his WR49 finish in 2020 was hardly his fault.
On a player to player basis, these two are so similar it's almost scary. The only big difference I see between these two seasons IS the CTR & we have to assume that goes up with Trevor Lawrence.
Now to the fun part: Vacated targets. In 2019, Atlanta had 258 vacated targets and Calvin Ridley saw a +50 target boost in 2020. That's freaking huge. That led to a huge jump in every major statistical category.
JAX has 250 vacated targets in 2020 with the departures of Tylier Eifert, Chris Conley, Keelan Cole and James OâShannessey. This is a HUGE target vacancy & unless they bring in a big name FA (why would they?) I expect at least 50% of those 250 to be split between Chark and Viska.
So you take 75 targets (25%) and project those to Chark. Well now that's crazy.. Chark wonât see 165 targets next season! So instead, I'm projecting a 45 target increase. Take a look at this extrapolation:
94 targets + 45 (139 total) = 110 receptions (using his 80.3% TCR)
94 targets + 45 (139 total) = 110 receptions (using his 80.3% TCR)
Add his YPR: (13.3, but weâll call it 11.3 to account for variables) So: 11.3 x 110 = 1243 yards. Tdâs = 9.5% TD rate (5 in 2020) meaning with data he would see 6 total TDâs instead of 5.
1243/10 = 124.3pts + 110pts (Rec) = 234.3pts + 30pts (TDâs) = 264 PPR fantasy points.
Good for WR9 in 2020. (1 point behind Lockett for WR8)
Go. Buy. Chark. Youâve been warned.
Good for WR9 in 2020. (1 point behind Lockett for WR8)
Go. Buy. Chark. Youâve been warned.
