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Here's a little thread about what I think is going on with the A's. First of all, remember, that 2020 was the first season that the A's received NO revenue sharing via the CBA. Here is what that revenue looked like (estimated):
2016: $32M
2017: $24M
2018: $16M
2019: $8M
2020+: $0
2016: $32M
2017: $24M
2018: $16M
2019: $8M
2020+: $0
So the A's had a double whammy: the first year they got no money from revenue sharing was also same year they got no in-stadium revenues because of the pandemic. I think they had been trying to thread a needle: a three-year period between no revenue sharing and a new ballpark.
But now because of the pandemic, that three year period is now at least a five year period. Plus, they're looking at one, and maybe two of those five years having no revenues at all except TV money. With a local TV contract that is one of the worst in baseball.
The A's have one little piece of luck, though: nobody else in the AL West has done much to improve themselves. The Astros lost Springer to free agency and Verlander to TJ. The Angels will probably be a bit better than last year, but how much? Rangers and Mariners are rebuilding.
The A's won the equivalent of 97 games with Chapman missing half the season and Semien being hurt/bad. If Chapman is healthy, the only *production* from last year they're missing from last year's numbers is the bullpen.
But bullpens are the flakiest part of any baseball roster. Remember coming into 2019 we thought Treinen/Trivino was an unbeatable pair? Then they both sucked, but Hendriks came out of nowhere. Bullpens are always unpredictable, for better or worse.
So here's what I think the A's are doing: they're operating on the assumption that (1) they still won't have any revenue all year, and (2) the team is still good enough to stay competitive until the trade deadline.
Then they can re-evaluate those two assumptions. If fans do get allowed and they are competitive at the trade deadline, they can add some salaries then. If they aren't competitive and there still aren't fans, they can sell their expensive players for younger, cheaper ones.
The tricky part comes if only one of those two assumptions are true by the trade deadline: if there are fans but the team is bad, or if there still aren't fans but the team is good.
If there still aren't fans but the team is good, then Fisher has to decide whether to dig into his pockets to finance a run. If the team is bad but there still aren't fans, then they have to decide whether to blow up the team and aim for 2025 or whenever they expect a new park.
