There is this great scene in an early Seinfeld where Jerry tries to pick up his rental car having made a reservation. The agency informs him they don't have a car for him at which point Jerry points out 1/n

"Anyone can take a reservation. Holding a reservation. That's the important part." Why am I telling you this? The concern about the Biden administration has always been not that they didn't think China was doing bad stuff. The Obama 2.0 Administration made the same 2/n

Points during their Obama 1.0 Administration. The worry is that they would conflate talk or conferences with actual agreement. As I have noted repeatedly here, they continue to say most of the right things. The more action they take however, the more they seem to be 3/n

Again conflating cheap talk and bad agreements (Seinfeldian reservations) with accomplishments. The reason the Trump administration refused to reup with Vlad was because China refused to even countenance joining the arms control agreement. Biden in reupping with Vlad 4/n

Has made a significant concession to China right when they are engaged in all types of saber rattling. Of course the journos will just report blathering fan girl nonsense about how this is positive but this is signaling weakness to Beijing. 5/n

Obama 1.0 repeatedly signalled weakness (and even almost took pride in this) to Beijing and Obama 2.0 is starting down that same path. Long way to go here but just remember: anyone can make an agreement with Beijing. Holding the agreement. That's the hard part. Done.