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As a parent and educational equity advocate, I want kids to be back in school ASAP too.
But to make the case for doing that, it's not enough just to throw the word "science!" around. We have to, you know, actually READ what the science says.
A thread: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/opinion/coronavirus-schools-unions.html
But to make the case for doing that, it's not enough just to throw the word "science!" around. We have to, you know, actually READ what the science says.
A thread: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/opinion/coronavirus-schools-unions.html
First, the common ground. Those who advocate opening schools for in-person instruction have an airtight case from an equity perspective. Remote instruction has absolutely exacerbated pre-existing inequality along racial and economic lines.
But the question is whether schools can re-open SAFELY. If re-opening schools would increase community spread and thus come at the cost of more parents and grandparents dying (and disproportionally so in communities of color), the policy Q obviously becomes much, much harder.
So can schools open now w/o increasing community spread? I've seen so many casual assertions that "science says yes!"
Here's David Brooks in the NYT: "In-person learning can be done safely with the right precautions. Study after study has shown that schools can be safe."
Here's David Brooks in the NYT: "In-person learning can be done safely with the right precautions. Study after study has shown that schools can be safe."
Shall we look at what those studies *actually* say?
To a T, the studies agree that schools can be opened safely IF AND ONLY IF community-wide infection and hospitalization rates are low enough.
To a T, the studies agree that schools can be opened safely IF AND ONLY IF community-wide infection and hospitalization rates are low enough.
Here's a quote from new CDC report: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2775875 "Preventing transmission in school settings will REQUIRE addressing and reducing levels of transmission in the surrounding communities."
Here's a study from WI and MI: "in-person instruction [does] not significantly contribut[e] to COVID spread...when there are low or modest...case rates.[But] in-person schooling...lead[s] to community COVID spread when preexisting case rates...are high." https://caldercenter.org/sites/default/files/WP%20247-1220_updated_typo.pdf
Here's a quote from a study using community hospitalization rates: "we find
evidence that th[e] trade-off [between opening schools and community spread] exists in counties with already high virus transmission" but not in counties with low rates. https://www.reachcentered.org/publications/the-effects-of-school-reopenings-on-covid-19-hospitalizations
evidence that th[e] trade-off [between opening schools and community spread] exists in counties with already high virus transmission" but not in counties with low rates. https://www.reachcentered.org/publications/the-effects-of-school-reopenings-on-covid-19-hospitalizations
In a way, this is good b/c there's scientific consensus: opening schools can be safe IF (but only IF) community infection rates are low enough.
So now the big Q. What do the studies say about how low is low enough? Here are the two data points we have:
So now the big Q. What do the studies say about how low is low enough? Here are the two data points we have:
The hospitalization study says no evidence of community spread if hospitalization rates per 100k are lower than 36-44 /week. Some counties are below that rate now, but MANY aren't. NYC is at 122/100k. LA is at 79.9. Miami is at 64. DC is at 215. (See: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GOT4M-mlPtWdkMcnyXz5acGSyvUdpKt0eKfu9GEDboA/edit#gid=594145778 )
The WI and MI study says that new infection rates above 21/100k (in MI) and above 5/100k (in WI) were associated with increased community spread. The current nationwide rate is 48/100k. (See downloadable chart at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#compare-trends_newcasesper100k)
To sum up: Given what the science actually says, it's irresponsible to assert that "schools can safely open tomorrow."
The better arg is, "let's get new infections down below 21 (or, to be more safe, 5)/100k and hospitalizations down below 36-44/100k." THEN open schools. /end
The better arg is, "let's get new infections down below 21 (or, to be more safe, 5)/100k and hospitalizations down below 36-44/100k." THEN open schools. /end
