1/6 @Artem_Lazarevv of @whale_map grouped the realized price (price at last on-chain movement) of unspent transactions of certain sizes & found that the #Bitcoin price finds support & resistance there 👀

Short 🧵 with a summary & some thoughts 👇

Source: https://lazarevv.medium.com/introducing-cohort-based-on-chain-analysis-part-1-realised-price-c06183874059
Introducing cohort-based on-chain analysis. Part 1: Realised price

A deep dive into exploring how on-chain analysis can be used to understand the behaviour of Bitcoin market participants

https://lazarevv.medium.com/introducing-cohort-based-on-chain-analysis-part-1-realised-price-c06183874059
2/6 The Realized Cap was originally introduced by @nic__carter & @khannib and is calculated by multiplying the #Bitcoin supply with the price of all unspent #Bitcoin transactions when last moved on-chain

It represents the estimated average value that was paid for each #Bitcoin
3/6 What the guys at @whale_map did, was calculate the realized price of each unspent transaction and group them by size (<1, 1-10, 10-100, 100-1000, 1000-10000 & >10000 BTC)

This approximates the #Bitcoin price paid by different holder bases, like whales or retail investors
4/6 During 🐻 market conditions where the #Bitcoin price is searching for a bottom, these levels turn out to provide support and/or resistance 👀

Simply put; market participants appear to buy when price returns to 'their' price level, or sell when it reaches the break-even point
4/6 During market conditions where the #Bitcoin price is searching for a bottom, these levels turn out to provide support and/or resistance Simply put; market participants appear to buy when price returns to 'their' price level, or sell when it reaches the break-even point
4/6 During market conditions where the #Bitcoin price is searching for a bottom, these levels turn out to provide support and/or resistance Simply put; market participants appear to buy when price returns to 'their' price level, or sell when it reaches the break-even point
4/6 During market conditions where the #Bitcoin price is searching for a bottom, these levels turn out to provide support and/or resistance Simply put; market participants appear to buy when price returns to 'their' price level, or sell when it reaches the break-even point
5/6 Some observations:
- The 10-100 BTC realized price level appears to be a great market cycle bottom catcher
- That level contains many coins that were mined between 2009-2012 and never moved, incl. Satoshi's coins
- The levels are not necessarily ordered by wallet size
6/6 Some ideas for future work:
- Create an alternative version that excludes unspent miner coins; might hold more 'pure' market participant behavior?
- Calculate ratio's between these price levels to see if the diverging or converging of levels holds market (cycle) information
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