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It's hard to predict how many people will show up to January 31 rallies in Russia to support @navalny. But the risk of violent incidents has gone up significantly, and one of the key factors here is choice of location for Moscow protest. Let me explain it quickly
It's hard to predict how many people will show up to January 31 rallies in Russia to support @navalny. But the risk of violent incidents has gone up significantly, and one of the key factors here is choice of location for Moscow protest. Let me explain it quickly
2/ Team Navalny has chosen Lubyanskaya and Old Squares in Moscow. That's where HQ of FSB and the Presidential Administration (PA) are located. According to organizers, the logic is that @navalny was poisoned by FSB squad, and the decision was likely taken by the Kremlin.
3/ Why does this choice of location create additional risk of violence and incidents compared to Pushkinskaya Square a week ago? There are three main reasons.
4/ First, the place is tiny. Except for a small park in front of PA building, it's just couple of sidewalks. If many people will come, it will look beautiful on camera and reult in dramatic shots, but some participants are likely to be forced to stay on the roadway...
5/ ... and risk up to one year in jail for "obstruction of traffic," according to the article 267 of the Russian Penal Code that has been amended by the Duma in late 2020. The police has already launched such case after Jan 23 protest, as @lizafoht reports https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-55799438
6/ Then, if police violence starts like it did last week, there are very few directions to run. The area is full of misleading side streets that lead to dead-end streets. Not surprisingly, that's where bulk of beatings and arrests happened during 2019 summer protests.
7/ Lastly, both FSB HQ and PA are heavily protected facilities with armed guards. An attempt to enter them can be met with gunfire. Particularly worrying is a parking lot in front of PA building protected by a fence. A lot of dangerous stuff can happen is someone walks in...
8/ It's important to understand that opposition has few realistic options for numerous reason, as I've argued in @ForeignPolicy recently. Escalating by putting protesters in danger isn't a good option to address the problem - quite the opposite. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/26/putin-navalny-russia-protests-lessons-belarus/
9/ Finally, I hope that everyone going to Lubyanka will read & follow instructions on safe participation in protest and risks to watch out compiled by @ru_thebell, @OvdInfo, Ekaterina Shulman and others. Surprisingly, Team @navalny never attaches them to calls for protests 
