Let's talk automated buses.

Today is the unveiling of New Flyer's automated battery electric transit bus, built off the Xcelsior CHARGE XE40 platform. They're marketing it as a SAE Level 4 ADS (automated driving system), which I won't quibble with because that's what it'll be in its first deployment.

The development of this bus, the first of its kind in North America, is a landmark achievement, and marks a step toward the future of transportation in a way that most of the other shiny objects dangled in the past few years don't. Low speed AV shuttles, namely.

When we deploy the first three of these L4 ADS buses on CTDOT's CTfastrak late next year, we'll be demonstrating that transit agencies can leverage automation as a tool to significantly improve transit bus service and capital planning *without any labor reductions*.

Unfortunately, the industry (*cough* A&E consultancies *cough*) came out of the gate pitching automation as a way for transit agencies to replace human operators for huge operations savings. It led less imaginative thinking about the ways in which ADS *could* reshape transit.

Unlike the low-speed AV shuttles that are commonly pitched as "the future of transit," you don't need to replace a driver, or even use automation as justification for reducing a driver to a "concierge" to achieve operational savings, capital savings, & better customer experience.

1. Reduced liability & vehicle damage from collisions
2. Less operator stress, and therefore easier recruiting and retention
3. Reduced yard space requirements for parking/charging
4. Better headways maintenance + increased service reliability
5. Better ADA accessibility

You have to really understand transit bus procurement and operations to see the full gamut of potential savings with a reliable L4 (or even L3) ADS stack. If you put your systems engineering hat on, you can start to identify all sorts of operational and planning efficiencies.

What we'll be doing in Connecticut next year with New Flyer will demonstrate two of these features specifically, in addition to general L4 automation within the operational design domain (ODD) of the CTfastrak dedicated busway.

Precision docking at platforms and platooning.

Precision docking at platforms is super challenging for drivers. You have to maneuver a 40-foot bus (or 60-foot, as currently used on the CTfastrak and many other high capacity routes) within ~3 inches of a platform. In a BRT setting, you might be doing that 10+ times an hour.

Drivers come too close, hit the platform, and damage the bus ($). They don't come in close enough, and either leave ADA-non-compliant gaps, or have to re-maneuver the vehicle to fix it. That costs time, which impacts headways maintenance.

It's not just about boarding/alighting though. My colleagues and I at @Go_CTE have supported numerous deployments involving conductive (pantograph) or inductive (wireless) on-route charging for battery electric buses. If you misalign the bus, you reduce charging effectiveness.

If you're deploying that on-route charging infra, it almost certainly is a requirement for completing the bus block (schedule) on a battery of limited range. You can't afford to mess up the on-route charge multiple times in a day or the bus can't complete it's route.

On-route charging reliability carries major procurement and service planning implications. As we advance our objectives of a zero-emission transition, automation can give agencies the confidence they need to procure more e-buses faster with minimal service planning impacts.

Let's talk about the second major ADS feature we'll be testing in Connecticut. Platooning.

Platooning was originally pitched as a way for trucks (or cars) to follow in tighter formations, increasing throughput and getting energy savings from drafting. It doesn't seem to work.

For buses, which are built like bricks (no aerodynamic efficiencies), there is no energy efficiency value proposition. But capacity is a big one. If proven successful, bus platooning would effectively eliminate light rail's advantage over BRT. One driver, multiple follower buses.

Moreover, while follower buses wouldn't have a driver on board, there *would* be one right there (leader bus) to provide on-site assistance (wayfinding, security, etc.) for passengers, similar to multi-car trains.

Add buses in peak hours, send back to depot off-peak.

Again, major procurement and service planning implications here. Do you need to procure 60-foot articulated buses just for a few high capacity routes? Or can you buy all 30-/35-/40-footers, providing you with a lot more operational flexibility (and yes, cost savings).

Finally, the piece of this I'll be measuring in Connecticut...energy efficiency from improved drive efficiency.

Some people are good drivers; some people are bad drivers. With battery electric buses (BEBs), it's not just a matter of safety...there are huge range implications.

The difference between an aggressive operator and a conservative operator can be as much as a 40% range difference on a BEB at extremes. Something on the order of 20% is not unreasonable for a planning assumption (50-60kWh of range on a standard BEB battery). This is a big deal.

If you need 350 kWh of service energy to meet 30% of your route requirements w/o on-route charging ($), but you can hit 50% with 400kWh, driver performance becomes a major factor in procurement & service planning. ADS can address this by assuming most of the dynamic driving task.

You might be asking "but won't the ADS stack consume lots of energy?" Yes, but we expect the gains to more that offset it, and sensor/computing efficiency will (continue to) grow more efficient over time.

Invest in bus automation, accelerate the zero-emission transition.

So all of this is just on the road. And while human operators would cede most of their driving tasks to the ADS, they'll still need to be there for passenger security, wayfinding, and ADA assistance, to address edge cases (these aren't L5), and drive outside the ODD.

In other words, you'll still need CDL-licensed drivers, and we need to work with organized labor to ensure they see this vision and buy into it for the sake of creating the necessary policy environment to achieve the potential gains from ADS technology.

Finally, as the event is about to start, automation can help agencies reorganize their bus yards, planning for tighter parking arrangements, automated charging (via conductive, inductive, or an invented plug-in system) that reduces the footprint of charging equipment ($$$$).

So I'm thrilled to watch my partners on program unveil this prototype today. Watch, learn, and embrace the future of transit. https://twitter.com/newflyer/status/1355164351120859143