Time for a threat on the J&J vaccine whose efficacy results were released today. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/health/covid-vaccine-johnson-and-johnson-variants.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage [1/n]

First things first. A 72% efficacy rate for a single dose vaccine is phenomenal. Also, no hospitalisations. If this were December we would be having parades. But there are problems. It doesn't look as effective against new variants (still no hospitalisations though). [2/n]

J&J is an easier vaccine to distribute. Single-dose. No cold chain. Closer to the usual. But alas there isn't much of it already available. May 7 million doses soon with, if a new factory is up and running, 100 million by June. That's not nothing but it all poses an issue. [3/n]

We are going to be in a situation where there are good vaccines and not so good vaccines in the eyes of the public and maybe beyond. In an environment where we are giving these away for free and rationing, this has big fat mess written all over it. [4/n]

Put simply, people might start waiting for the better vaccine. This means that there are going to be market-like forces injected into all this. It is not clear that this is a bad thing. It is just that it means that things become messier. [5/n]

If I had my drothers, I would position the J&J vaccine differently in the marketplace. Put simply, we reserve the good vaccine for the most vulnerable but we start allocating the J&J vaccine for people who are likely to be spreaders. [6/n]

That means people who currently have to go to work and younger people. This is a branding issue that governments have to get ahead on. No business would release two versions of a product with different qualities without market segmentation and neither should the govt here. [7/n]

That said, I have no confidence whatsoever that our public health officials will be able to see it that way. If past performance is anything to judge, they may do the opposite and crimp the J&J vaccine entirely. That would be tragic. But that is where we are. [8/8]