I respect George Monbiot hugely but this kind of evidence-free take is beneath his own high standards. It's also typical of environmentalists whose expertise in transport planning is minimal. 1/n https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1355101948312252416

In my experience, they tend to overestimate—especially in regard to distances longer than the daily commute—the amount of business travel which takes place (10% according to the NTS, 2019), and underestimate the amount of leisure travel (26%). 2/n

I've not seen any evidence to suggest that leisure travel will decline post-pandemic. I can actually well imagine it increasing as more people choose or are compelled to stay in the UK. 3/n

Of those who commute, a staggering 85% use a private car or van. If we want to halt climate breakdown and tackle air pollution, this fundamentally needs to change. And thinking that this vast number of commuters will evaporate after Covid is magical at best. 4/n

The fact is, we need to construct and then pull the levers which will get drivers to use other transport modes. HS2 is one such lever, and a big one at that... 5/n

By shifting intercity services, which eat up a load of room on the railway, onto their own dedicated network, HS2 will free up the existing one—both tracks and stations—for more stopping services (not to mention freight). It's actually remarkably resource-efficient. 6/n

Without HS2, the dream of running additional and/or cheaper services is precisely that. But with HS2, and with the right policy levers in place, the new capacity should have the effect of making rail travel cheaper, more convenient and more reliable. 7/n

So this is the take Monbiot should be landing on: we urgently need to get folks—commuters or otherwise—out of polluting cars and onto electrified rail. This we cannot do without HS2. And our life support systems—to borrow one of Monbiot's terms—depend on it. 8/8