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Earlier this week, @EconMitch, @euanritchie & I shared our analysis on the UK #aid #cuts and their potential impact.
The full note from @CGDev on what we know so far is available here: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/overview-impact-proposed-cuts-uk-aidSome
Some key takeaways below:
The full note from @CGDev on what we know so far is available here: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/overview-impact-proposed-cuts-uk-aidSome
Some key takeaways below:
The scale & pace of the cuts means we risk cutting the wrong things, lowering the effectiveness of UK aid. There are just months to implement cuts to the aid budget equivalent in size to years’ worth of growth.
What’s more, if we honour commitments made before the aid budget was cut, other uncommitted areas face even steeper cuts. Notably, our bilateral portfolio stands to fall 60% from 2019 levels. This shock creates major value-for-money risks.
If all areas of UK aid were equally cut, we can get some sense of potential impact by scaling down the Gov's results claims. These estimates need to be heavily caveated, but indicate withdrawn support for the education of 4.5m children & 100k lives lost due to fewer immunisations
The Gov has said the cuts are temporary and it will return to 0.7% target “when the fiscal situation allows.” The OBR projects the current budget deficit to fall below its levels in 2013 (when the 0.7% target was first met) and 2015 (when the target was made law) by 2022/23.
So the scale & speed of the cuts risks worsening the UK’s aid effectiveness and withdrawing support for millions of the most vulnerable around the world.
But while the UK’s current fiscal situation is bad, it is also temporary. The effect of the aid cuts will be longer lasting.
But while the UK’s current fiscal situation is bad, it is also temporary. The effect of the aid cuts will be longer lasting.
