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Late to the dissection of Xi's Davos 2.0 speech, but here are some observations - THREAD:
As I listened, I noted how unsurprising the content was. It was aligned with the standard messaging we get nowadays. So I looked back at Xi's 2017 Davos speech to compare and oh boy... 1/
As I listened, I noted how unsurprising the content was. It was aligned with the standard messaging we get nowadays. So I looked back at Xi's 2017 Davos speech to compare and oh boy... 1/
Here's 2017: 2/ https://america.cgtn.com/2017/01/17/full-text-of-xi-jinping-keynote-at-the-world-economic-forum
First, let's all roll our eyes at the buzzwords and facades. Now, let's dig into the differences.
2017 is exclusively about economic matters and how awesomely China is going to fill the impending vacuum left by Trump's America (Donald took office just after this speech). 4/
2017 is exclusively about economic matters and how awesomely China is going to fill the impending vacuum left by Trump's America (Donald took office just after this speech). 4/
I know 2017 was about a decade ago, but if you can't recall, the international community ate this speech up. 5/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-defends-globalization-1484654899
2017 was 100% about China becoming a responsible part of the multilateral economic order, and I recall people being convinced that China was entering a new era that would complete it's integration into the WTO system. Open markets, level playing field, SOE reform, et. al. 6/
2021 strikes a very different tone and uses much more assertive language. After four years, Xi now openly defends ideological distinctions and explicitly harps on trade and tech wars, decoupling, and even a new Cold War. 7/
I can't put my finger down on what specifically makes me note this, but I can't help but feel that the 2017 speech says, "China will integrate into the world order" (even if that wasn't the plan all along), while the 2021 speech says, "The world order will adapt to China" 8/
And let me be clear, China is a world power, and it has every right to want to shape multilateral systems and the status quo. Denying China its place at the global table is unsound by any understanding of IR, but it's also a great way to basically force a conflict. 9/
Finally, we should remember that these speeches are for external audiences, so it's important to compare what we want to hear with what is actually said.
2017 is basically 100% of what liberal market economies wanted to hear. 2021 is more like 80% of what we want. 10/
2017 is basically 100% of what liberal market economies wanted to hear. 2021 is more like 80% of what we want. 10/
Cynical me was going through it, rolling my eyes at more promises, and then being caught off guard by some of the more honest messages - ideological confidence, expectations that the world order will change as China rises, "changes unseen in a century", etc. 11/
The willingness to say those bits out loud to the Davos crowd says a lot about the confidence that Xi has on the path he has set his country on.
Finally, it's clearly a message to Biden that China isn't going to be deterred. 12/
Finally, it's clearly a message to Biden that China isn't going to be deterred. 12/
Reading between the lines, all the disruptions, decoupling, and breakdown of the global order are external to China, driven by outside forces without any recognition of China's role.
In other words - We are on the right path, if there are problems, it's not on us. 13/
In other words - We are on the right path, if there are problems, it's not on us. 13/
If nothing else, give these two speeches a read to see how much the world has changed in the last four years. It's easy to miss this when we live it day to day, but the starkness of the two speeches, and the contemporary reactions to them, was striking. end/
