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Ok. Let's dig into the claim that the refs do not call Leafs games fairly. We're going to look at all games for all teams since the start of the '17-18 season. This will be a little baseball-math-experiment in TOI redistribution and how that impacts Goal differential.
Thread.
Thread.
The idea here is to adjust the Leafs' penalty numbers to league average while keeping their penalty differential the same. This means that we'll add PP and SH TOI over this span and deduct that time from their EV TOI, recalculate their goal differential, and see what we get.
Here are the Leafs' numbers and league ranks:
EV TOI: 12,235 (3rd)
PP TOI: 1,053 (31st)
SH TOI: 1,109 (26th)
EV G±/60: 0.37 (5th)
PP GF/60: 8.73 (4th)
SH GA/60: 6.91 (10th)
Pen2 draw total: 713 (30th)
Pen2 take total: 701 (30th)
EV TOI: 12,235 (3rd)
PP TOI: 1,053 (31st)
SH TOI: 1,109 (26th)
EV G±/60: 0.37 (5th)
PP GF/60: 8.73 (4th)
SH GA/60: 6.91 (10th)
Pen2 draw total: 713 (30th)
Pen2 take total: 701 (30th)
Avg. team penalty drawn/taken over this span is the same: 792. We'll add 85 penalties to both drawn/taken totals at 1.8 min per to bring their total numbers up to league average. This works out to 153 additional minutes at both PP & SH strengths. This is then removed from EV TOI.
We're using 1.8 minutes per penalty here as a quick average of the length of a normal penalty. This isn't exact, but it's close enough for this. We're also using the rates we shared above for each strength state to re-calculate.
Now we can adjust the Leafs raw EV G±, PP GF, and SH GA by adding/subtracting goals based on these adjusted TOI numbers. As noted, we're keeping the Leafs rates at each historical strength state and adding or subtracting goals based on the change in strength TOI.
The results:
The results:
So, (many assumptions being made here obviously) if the refs had called penalties in Leafs games at the average rate (17-18 thru yesterday), and the Leafs’ pen diff stayed the same, the Leafs would have gained ~3 goals, or about 1 goal person season.
Ok, fine. Let's say the Leafs should be drawing *way* more penalties than they take. Let's inflate TOR's pen differential to that of the "best" team over this span, COL, who has a +80 penalty differential. Here's what that looks like.
6 goals to TOR's GF differential.
6 goals to TOR's GF differential.
That's 6 goals to their diff per season tbc.
Not bad, but... kind of minimal considering. There seems to be an astronomic assumption by a lot of TOR fans that the penalty "bias" in the league would drastically alter season outcomes for them.
We're talking ~2 standing points.
Not bad, but... kind of minimal considering. There seems to be an astronomic assumption by a lot of TOR fans that the penalty "bias" in the league would drastically alter season outcomes for them.
We're talking ~2 standing points.
One last addendum here - we're also ignoring the fact that there are 30 other teams in the league... so *every* team has to play in this environment. And the Leafs are not the only "skilled" team.
