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I got three smart friends on a call to try and make sense of the $GME situation. This thread is my current best model.
TL;DR: The longs are playing the short game, the shorts are playing the long game.
TL;DR: The longs are playing the short game, the shorts are playing the long game.
Who's long GME? Some combination of WSBers, FOMOists, and hedge funds. The WSBers have no fear and will sell at $0.01 or on the moon when the shorts are gone. FOMOists may panic if GME slides but they're probably a small fraction. Funds will try to get on top and may have hedges.
The interesting Q is who's short. Someone who's short for 50% of their bankroll is vulnerable to a squeeze, but at 2% they can hold on forever. Current borrowing fee is 31% APR, or 0.1% a day. It's not that bad. So if the shorts are distributed they can wait it out.
The fact that short interest stayed fixed at 71M probably means that many want to short and are constrained by the number of shares available to borrow (naked shorts are negligible). If a short cashes out, another short-seller will just come in $1 higher. https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1354485412128043010
WSBers can hold the line but can't push higher without new money that would take some of these 71M shares out of borrowing circulation. Or hope that the shorts are actually vulnerable and will cover-buy in a panic upwards. They need something dramatic to happen soon.
One dramatic thing that could happen is that people who sold call options for tomorrow aren't already hedged and will need to buy tomorrow to deliver the shares. It's unclear if that's realistic, most option sellers are market makers who don't stay exposed for long.
The shorts, if they came in at high prices (likely given the huge volume this week) and if they're not reckless just need to wait it out. Eventually the longs will either get bored or turn on each other — with no squeeze this becomes just a pyramid scheme.
I think that GME getting taken off retail brokerages, even if it's for a day, really hurt WSB. If the shorts aren't knocked out tomorrow morning by a huge flood of FOMO retail buys, I think they'll win over the next weeks.
In a siege metaphor, the longs are in the castle and the shorts are besieging. It's comfier inside the walls than outside and the resolve is strong, but supplies are running out. They need the cavalry to come and lift the siege, but who knows if it's coming?
Also, I apologize to everyone who sees this saga as a heroic morality play, I didn't mean to rain on your fire with cold financial analysis. If that story is alive for you it shouldn't depend on minutiae like $GME's short borrowing fees or even its share price. Live beautifully.
