The extremely low level of

a. Single stock futures rollovers - open interest in terms of stock fut at multi month lows
b. Carry forward charges on rollovers - NIFTY premium of 30 to 40 points on a 14000 base, translating into a less than 4 percent annualized yield

These indicate the extent to which stocks have been marked for delivery by FPIs etc. - further, the regular sharp correction in markets, makes for an extremely light market in terms of speculative interest.

I maintain that there are structural changes in overseas portfolios

that are underway, where EM allocations are clearly on the upswing - having the impact of periodic chunks (primarily) of index stocks being bought , with collateral +ve impact on the rest of the market. This isnt a trend that's about to roll over and play dead! No question!

Retail and HNI speculative participation is still on the fringe, at best, which gets off the train at the first sign of trouble, is forced to exit - regulators must take credit for (arguably higher) margining requirements that prevent froth from building up.

India must take credit for an extremely practical regulation of a market wide limit for single stock futures (I would argue that options, especially out of the money options, should be excluded, but that's a different set of tweets!), which prevents the kind of nonsense

Of the kind seen with AMC and Gamestop; such incidents, while underlying laxity and hubris, get further underscored when folks step in to protect hedge funds or other players - not even systemically important by any yardstick!

Markets are in fine fettle - the ground reality

Of strong companies in India displaying a combination of massive cost cuts, silent jobs layoffs, strong acquisition of market share from unorganized funds, lower levels of leverage, almost no capital calls for future Capex- all this has significantly de-risked business models

and corporate balance sheets - thereby almost begging for a re rating in terms of P/E and EV/ EBITDA multiples - which the markets have sensed long before it has been internalized by market participants. What will give a further catalyst to this is the earnings upgrade cycle

and I believe that as (telecom and psu banks especially) corporates surprise liberally on earnings, we may well end up looking back (at the end of 2021 and 2022) and regretting not having bought into sharp corrections- the home maker instincts have been triggered off

in the Indian corporate sector - cut costs, conserve and sweat assets more - the outcomes can be amazing- flat to small changes in revenues may be accompanied by sharp EBITDA and PAT jumps - company after company in Q2 and Q3 exemplifying this!

Overlay the above with a government trying, for perhaps the first time, with sweating PSUs far more, for Capex and payouts, maybe some strategic selloffs and PLI kind of schemes that have made manufacturing a superb theme to track - engineering, pharma companies

Have never seen this level of order book and India procurement strategies (the alternative to China thesis is no longer a theoretical abstract, it's there with every single industry and company) - never seen a better set of tail-winds for micro investment in Indian markets

So as long as public remains skeptical, cautious and even worried, as long as participation is limited, the bull market is intact! Avoid the mindless IPO madness, which is perhaps the only place where a genuine bubble exists. @CNBCTV18Live @ETNOWlive @_anujsinghal @nikunjdalmia