Read on Twitter
The Anatomy of a Top-15 Dynasty Running Back:
CMC
Dalvin
Kamara
Saquon
JT
D Henry
Chubb
Akers
Zeke
Swift
M Sanders
A Gibson
A Jones
Jacobs
Dobbins
Using these players in the data set, let’s take a look!!
CMC
Dalvin
Kamara
Saquon
JT
D Henry
Chubb
Akers
Zeke
Swift
M Sanders
A Gibson
A Jones
Jacobs
Dobbins
Using these players in the data set, let’s take a look!!
Draft Capital:
Rd 1 - 4
Rd 2 - 8
Rd 3 - 2
Rd 4 + - 1
As always, good players are often drafted early. The only outlier here is Aaron Jones and ironically he is the last one to get a new contract.
James Robinson is another outlier, if I extended the list to top-20.
Rd 1 - 4
Rd 2 - 8
Rd 3 - 2
Rd 4 + - 1
As always, good players are often drafted early. The only outlier here is Aaron Jones and ironically he is the last one to get a new contract.
James Robinson is another outlier, if I extended the list to top-20.
40 Time and Speed Score.
40 Time:
Better 4.40 -2 (JT & Gibson)
4.40-4.50 - 7
4.50-4.60 - 4
Slower 4.60 - 1
Speed score:
116+ - 4
105-115 - 5
95-105 - 5
95 less - 1
All but 3 were over 100 Speed Score.
Size and Speed. That’s the name of the game. And speaking of size...
40 Time:
Better 4.40 -2 (JT & Gibson)
4.40-4.50 - 7
4.50-4.60 - 4
Slower 4.60 - 1
Speed score:
116+ - 4
105-115 - 5
95-105 - 5
95 less - 1
All but 3 were over 100 Speed Score.
Size and Speed. That’s the name of the game. And speaking of size...
Weight:
220 more - 7
210-220 - 5
200-210 - 3
200 less - 0
Only one player was less than 208. And that guy is CMC. A guy that checked every other box on this list in a major way.
220 more - 7
210-220 - 5
200-210 - 3
200 less - 0
Only one player was less than 208. And that guy is CMC. A guy that checked every other box on this list in a major way.
BMI:
BMI over 30 - 13
BMI under 30 - 2
Size matters when it comes to running backs. If you want a guy who can be a lead-back, you’re gonna need a player with above average body mass. CMC is the outlier here and Miles Sanders just misses.
BMI over 30 - 13
BMI under 30 - 2
Size matters when it comes to running backs. If you want a guy who can be a lead-back, you’re gonna need a player with above average body mass. CMC is the outlier here and Miles Sanders just misses.
Best college season in terms of total receptions:
40 more - 3
30-40 - 5
20-30 - 5
20 less - 2
Only two players had zero seasons with at least 20 catches in college - D Henry and N Chubb. And we knew these two guys were ELITE Size/Speed/Power guys.
40 more - 3
30-40 - 5
20-30 - 5
20 less - 2
Only two players had zero seasons with at least 20 catches in college - D Henry and N Chubb. And we knew these two guys were ELITE Size/Speed/Power guys.
Best season - total scrimmage yards (Freshman or Sophomore):
1500 more - 8
1000-1500 - 3
500-1000 - 1
500 less - 3
Wow. Most of these guys had a 1500+ yard season by their true sophomore season. Early college dominance is a key indicator for an elite prospect.
1500 more - 8
1000-1500 - 3
500-1000 - 1
500 less - 3
Wow. Most of these guys had a 1500+ yard season by their true sophomore season. Early college dominance is a key indicator for an elite prospect.
Career College YPC:
6.5 more - 4
6.0-6.5 - 7
5.5-6.0 - 2
5.5 less - 1
Only Cam Akers behind that awful Florida St line averaged less than 5.5. And most of these guys were 6 YPC or more.
Makes sense.
6.5 more - 4
6.0-6.5 - 7
5.5-6.0 - 2
5.5 less - 1
Only Cam Akers behind that awful Florida St line averaged less than 5.5. And most of these guys were 6 YPC or more.
Makes sense.
Burst Score (using playerprofiler’s burst score percentile):
80th % + - 5
70-80 % - 3
60-70 % - 2
60 % less - 3
You clearly would like to see an above average Burst score (the jumping drills at the NFL combine) from these guys.
80th % + - 5
70-80 % - 3
60-70 % - 2
60 % less - 3
You clearly would like to see an above average Burst score (the jumping drills at the NFL combine) from these guys.
In summary - you are seeking a college back who was very productive at an early age. A player who possesses the requisite size and athleticism to escape elite NFL defenders. Receiving ability is also a big plus.
In summary - here is what to look for in an Elite RB:
* Day 1 or 2 draft capital
* Sub 4.60 speed w/ a speed score above 100
* Weight above 205 and BMI over 30
* A college season with over 20 catches
* Fr/Soph Production 1,000 +
* Above average Burst 60% +
* 6.0 + College YPC
* Day 1 or 2 draft capital
* Sub 4.60 speed w/ a speed score above 100
* Weight above 205 and BMI over 30
* A college season with over 20 catches
* Fr/Soph Production 1,000 +
* Above average Burst 60% +
* 6.0 + College YPC
I hope you enjoyed that one - and check out the 2020 version, which yielded similar results - even with a different data set of players. https://twitter.com/dynogametheory/status/1224864638115778561
