Every few years someone in the natsec world or who thinks they are, attempts to be the “next Kennan” and write an X article. Always do they fail. Tony points to a reason of the moment but there are others 1/ https://twitter.com/iron_man_actual/status/1354934787648217106

First, almost none of these imitators know the subject upon which they are writing as well as Kennan knew and understood the Soviet Union, Russian history, language and culture. Furthermore, Kennan also understood Germany quite well and the strategic interrelationships in Europe

Secondly, Kennan had been thinking deeply about the Soviet question since the 20’s when no one cared and the 30’s when FDR’s White House was flatly hostile to anti communist takes on Soviet Russia. He didn’t compile his thoughts together over a long weekend

Third, the political authorities in DC finally had recognized the gravity of the Soviet question, had no answers of their own and were ready finally to listen to the kind of strategic advice that makes the most sense in a historical context.

Had this particular moment not arrived, Kennan would have written an unread telegram - which is the fate of a lot of diplomatic cables. Many ambassadors are ignored by assistant and deputy secretaries much less the SECSTATE and POTUS

Fourth, the American political class was coherently forming a strong consensus that the USSR and Communism was a threat on par with the Axis. They were ready to “sell it” to the Congress and the country - what they needed was the strategy to sell, the concept to rally around

Kennan was the right man for the right moment. This is a circumstance that no person can duplicate as it depends on many variables and chance.

Note that Kennan was not the right man to implement Containment. That was Nitze and a number of others. A fact that left Kennan bitter

If there is going to be a new Kennan - she or he will be the right person in the right place in the right moment or they too will get nowhere despite strategic brilliance, if any. And there are very few people with that quality at any given time. Sometimes there are none.

Kennan was a great man in his way, if flawed. There are no Kennans coming to save us with grand strategic vision and most Americans wouldn’t listen if they did.

Let’s fix the basics first and then maybe later we can talk grand strategy

End rant