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1/ My Q4 2020 $TSLA earnings notes:
Revenue +46% to $10.74 billion
Wall Street $10.38 billion - BEAT
GAAP Net income +157% to $270 million
Non-GAAP net income +134% to $903 million
EPS $0.80
Wall Street $1.03 - MISS
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Revenue +46% to $10.74 billion
Wall Street $10.38 billion - BEAT
GAAP Net income +157% to $270 million
Non-GAAP net income +134% to $903 million
EPS $0.80
Wall Street $1.03 - MISS
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2/ Operations
500k vehicles delivered in 2020
Supercharge stations +41%
Supercharge connectors +45%
Service locations +21%
Mobile fleet +11%
500k vehicles delivered in 2020 Supercharge stations +41% Supercharge connectors +45% Service locations +21% Mobile fleet +11%
3/ Operations
Model 3/Y Shanghai
Model S/X Refresh
Solar deployed +59%
Storage deployed +199%
Lots of products/factories in development
Model 3/Y Shanghai Model S/X Refresh Solar deployed +59% Storage deployed +199%Lots of products/factories in development
4/ Global market share 
5/ Solar & Storage growing
Elon: Had to devote whole company to Model 3 launch. Putting a lot of attention on solar now.
Elon: Had to devote whole company to Model 3 launch. Putting a lot of attention on solar now.
6/ Full Self Driving progress
7/ Balance Sheet
$19.4 billion in cash
$5 billion share offering ($632 share price avg)
$1.9 billion in Q4 FCF
$2 billion convertible debt repayment
$19.4 billion in cash $5 billion share offering ($632 share price avg) $1.9 billion in Q4 FCF $2 billion convertible debt repayment
8/ Automotive gross margin
Up 157 bps
Regulatory credits +202% (big help)
Average selling price
New product launches
S/X sales due to refresh (higher margin)
SBC due to share runup increase in COGS
Total gross margin
Up 39 bps
Energy biz neg GM
Up 157 bps Regulatory credits +202% (big help) Average selling price New product launches S/X sales due to refresh (higher margin) SBC due to share runup increase in COGSTotal gross margin
Up 39 bps Energy biz neg GM
9/ Outlook
50%+ volume increase
(implies at least 750k cars in 2021)
Operating margin expansion (was 6.3% in 2020)
50%+ volume increase (implies at least 750k cars in 2021)
Operating margin expansion (was 6.3% in 2020)
12/ Full Self Driving subscription product on the way
Could do WONDERS for take-rate and gross margin!
Could do WONDERS for take-rate and gross margin!
14/ Why Telsa Semi hasn't been a priority
15/ Model S / X refresh look great
Model S Plaid will be crazy fast
Slow ramp in Q1 2021
Pickup by Q2 2021
Raised price $10,000 -- should help gross margin!
Model S Plaid will be crazy fast
Slow ramp in Q1 2021
Pickup by Q2 2021
Raised price $10,000 -- should help gross margin!
16/ $TSLA has grown to become one of my largest holdings
I still think there's room for this mega-giant to run
The next 10 years will be incredible
I still think there's room for this mega-giant to run
The next 10 years will be incredible
