Random business musing: Red Hats model and the non-compete models have more in common than you might think at first glance. They both effectively move the needle in the direction it needs to move: if someone wants the goods from you, they pay for it.

The other effects are secondary. Red hats model uses open upstream/created midstream to build product and create a channel. Non compete uses free offerings and the ability to patch to create a channel.

The big delta between them is branding and distribution terms. Example: AWS resells RH. Microsoft too. Because customers want it, and that’s the only way to get it. Even though free (as in $) compat dostros abound.

Same idea in non compete. One decides to jettison the broader community (the one that wants to compete with you, or bundle) to achieve it. The other achieves it purely with branding and distribution terms.

Let’s talk about the dreaded AWS spins up a service scenario. The worst version is the Elastic one: they use your brand, or almost your brand. This is avoided in the RH model: if they want your brand, they must pay.

If they want to offer a compat service but aren’t willing to reach terms, they must fork. That means carrying the build and supply chain, with you as upstream. Hopefully that generates some contrib/load sharing.

If they don’t want to do that, they must re-implement anyway - which, if enough customers ask, they’ll do (DocumentDB).

In scenario 1 or 2, you’re winning. You either make a dollar when they do (1), or you get to compete by controlling upstream timing and expertise (2). Either way, you’re the gold standard.

With 3, of things get hostile, they go their own way. New features start to show up. Perf improvements. Now it’s more of a straight fight between theirs and yours, not simply a convenience question.

In the non compete version, they’ll just do 3. Don’t kid yourself: build a big enough business in the sector, they will launch a service. They eat to live. Like a shark.

They aren’t shy about it. They call it customer obsession. They’ll give the people what they want. And what they’ll want is a version of your kit as a first party service.

You’ll have that fight with your only leverage being the same as any proprietary vendor. No network effects. No community outrage. Just you and AWS, fighting it out in engineering barter-town. And you’re not Mel Gibson.