Rant Incoming:
So here we are- it's different this time!!!! It reminds me of "History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes." We have been in a 40 year bond bull market sending rates to all time lows enabling for "free" money to feed into the system- sending leverage higher
The mechanism this time is calls and massive leverage. The restrictions on "margin accounts" has been reduced to nothing- because why not- money is cheap so the hurdle rate and costs of operation is negligible. This isn't the first time we have seen leverage at peaks.
The reason the margin debt is SOOO much different this time is- you guessed it- cheap rates: Thanks Fed! But margin is ALWAYS used at peaks-So you have companies giving drugs to the monsters in order to YOLO. The problem with margin- margin calls and having your A/C go negative.
We had great innovation come out of the dot com bubble, but we also had rampant shell corps and bankrupt garbage. This time we have SPACs and non-profitable companies EXPLODING. Will some of them work- sure- but most will implode and take down the ship with it.
We have pension funds feeding into the risk profile as they struggle to make rate of return to deliver a rate of return to cover payouts as the risk-free rate implodes. The feeding frenzy continues but still- not different vs any other times in history- just bigger.
This is all happening as poverty explodes around the world and now 43M Americans are on foodstamps as food security/inflation reaches levels we haven't seen in years. So while we laugh at the market- gravity is real and waiting.
The Fed/Govt had an opportunity to stop the roller coaster in MAR when the monsters were all insolvent and levered long. Right after the biggest monster said "the death of the business cycle." Instead- we issued the biggest bailout in history and added trillions to their wealth.
I did a show and rant earlier about Social Immobility and inequality- This is all happening as the bottom 3 quartiles see no wage growth as inflation only goes higher leaving them behind.
https://twitter.com/markfny/status/1347008968955207680
The dems/rep had a chance to make change in Mar, but just like any crisis- it was used to enrich themselves and their richest donors. Nothing has changed- the top get richer and the bottom get poorer- a tale as old as time. This is a lot of things... what is isn't is different.
You can follow @markfny.
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