A thought experiment. Renewable energy and electrified transport 2020 investment, and 5-year CAGRs:
Renewables: $304B, 0.15% CAGR
Electrified transport: $139B, 20.74% CAGR
How long before EVs receive more investment than renewables? 3-4 years. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead
Renewables: $304B, 0.15% CAGR
Electrified transport: $139B, 20.74% CAGR
How long before EVs receive more investment than renewables? 3-4 years. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead
EV dollars > RE dollars in 4 years isn't a particularly bold claim; it's probably conservative. @BloombergNEF expects 4.4M EVs sold this year, ~$200B worth, which would push that crossover (same CAGR) to 2023. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Why EV investment has velocity (1):
Transport is hedonic—that is, we consumers ascribe much more value than just cost to our vehicles. Comfort, convenience, sound, speed, appearance, social signals, and so on all come into play. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Transport is hedonic—that is, we consumers ascribe much more value than just cost to our vehicles. Comfort, convenience, sound, speed, appearance, social signals, and so on all come into play. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Why EV investment has velocity (2):
Transport is highly distributed, and more financially accessible than big renewables. Even distributed solar took decades to reach 2M U.S. homes. ~80M new cars sold a year globally https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Transport is highly distributed, and more financially accessible than big renewables. Even distributed solar took decades to reach 2M U.S. homes. ~80M new cars sold a year globally https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Why EV investment has velocity (3):
Cross-reference 1) and 2). The combination of transport’s hedonic nature and broad distribution means we need to expand our sense of where electrification might show up next. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Cross-reference 1) and 2). The combination of transport’s hedonic nature and broad distribution means we need to expand our sense of where electrification might show up next. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Here's where it's going next:
Heavy trucking, where @ScaniaGroup did the math on electric versus hydrogen powertrains: https://www.scania.com/group/en/home/newsroom/news/2021/Scanias-commitment-to-battery-electric-vehicles.html
Heavy trucking, where @ScaniaGroup did the math on electric versus hydrogen powertrains: https://www.scania.com/group/en/home/newsroom/news/2021/Scanias-commitment-to-battery-electric-vehicles.html
Here's where else it's going next:
Marine transport as @benedictevans posted yesterday in "The Great Unbundling", after my piece went to production https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations (check out his talk; it's very good)
Marine transport as @benedictevans posted yesterday in "The Great Unbundling", after my piece went to production https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations (check out his talk; it's very good)
More on ferries from @mariuskfoss: Norway's new contracts are mostly electric https://twitter.com/mariuskfoss/status/1354044720507445249?s=20
Here's where else it's going next:
Electric excavators https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Komatsu-to-mass-produce-electrified-excavators-with-US-partner
Electric excavators https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Komatsu-to-mass-produce-electrified-excavators-with-US-partner
Here's where else it's going next:
Snow grooming https://www.prinoth.com/cleanmotion/press/
Snow grooming https://www.prinoth.com/cleanmotion/press/
Here's where else it's going next:
Outboard motors https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pure-watercraft-closes-37-5-million-series-a-funding-round-to-deliver-high-performance-electric-outboard-motors-leading-the-way-to-clean--quiet-boating-301196179.html
Outboard motors https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pure-watercraft-closes-37-5-million-series-a-funding-round-to-deliver-high-performance-electric-outboard-motors-leading-the-way-to-clean--quiet-boating-301196179.html
A few other ideas:
Electric snow machines
Electric Sea-Doos
Electric riding mowers
Semi-serious, oil demand analysts will eventually need to have an electric powertrain demand elasticity of total cost of ownership for all these things and more https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Electric snow machines
Electric Sea-Doos
Electric riding mowers
Semi-serious, oil demand analysts will eventually need to have an electric powertrain demand elasticity of total cost of ownership for all these things and more https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN
Thanks to @colinmckerrache for indulging this thought experiment /end https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-28/in-the-race-for-investment-dollars-cars-are-pulling-ahead?sref=JMv1OWqN