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So, this is probably right *because* Trump probably won't be convicted.
BUT, if Trump were convicted and disqualified, this could very well end up in the courts in a way that would be very hard to duck. Here's how. (1/x) https://twitter.com/toddntucker/status/1354801288341377024
BUT, if Trump were convicted and disqualified, this could very well end up in the courts in a way that would be very hard to duck. Here's how. (1/x) https://twitter.com/toddntucker/status/1354801288341377024
(2/x) Many (maybe all?) states require you to be eligible for the office for which you are running in order to be listed on the ballot.
(3/x) So if Trump were convicted and disqualified and if he sought to run again in 2024, at least many states deny him a spot on the ballot under state law. Presumably, he would sue in state court, arguing that he is eligible and therefore the denial of a ballot spot is illegal.
(4/x) State courts would rule as a matter of first instance, but since it raises a question of federal law, it could easily wind up in the U.S. Supreme Court.
(5/x) The courts could say this is a political question authoritatively resolved by the Senate conviction, but that would in effect be taking a position on the merits.
(6/6) So, while the courts could pretty easily refuse to get involved ex ante, a conviction and disqualification could easily lead to an ex post situation that basically forces their hand.
