One of two things will now happen in the next few weeks, as surveillance data on millions of U.K. over 65s already vaccinated with AZ jab emerges:
1. An almighty headache for the German govt if data shows strong protection
2. An almighty headache for U.K. govt if it doesn’t https://twitter.com/mattgarrahan/status/1354775315059380226

Let me elaborate a bit. Currently there are two conflicting data pts here:
1. Emphasised by German regulators: AZ trial doesn't give enogh data to be certain their vaccine prevents infections
2. Emphasised by UK regulators and AZ: AZ trial shows strong immune response in 65-plus

Germans say - "we can't be sure it stops over 65s getting COVID"
AZ/UK say "well, maybe, but even if they get COVID they don't get anywhere near as ill, don't go to hospital and don't die".
As far as I can see (happy to be corrected), the trial data says *both these things*

In addition, and again happy to be corrected by those more expect, there is no a priori reason to expect immune protection to drop off a cliff among older groups. Might be a bit weaker. But dramatically weaker? Less likely.

Either way, we find out soon enough how the millions already vaccinated are faring. If it turns out that, as AZ has claimed, they are drastically less likely to get seriously ill, go to hospital, die etc, then the problem is that was what was being said from the start.

The question I would expect opposition politicians, sensible journalists to ask in that situation is: "Why did you delay approval of a vaccine when you knew it was likely to prevent serious illness and death?"

Maybe "we wanted to wait for more data" will suffice as an answer. Germany has less COVID about than UK. But not *that much* less. Waiting a few weeks could mean thousands of extra deaths.

OTOH, if it turns out AZ vaccine is not as effective as expected/claimed at preventing severe illness/death in older groups, then the UK govt obviously also has a major crisis on its hands.