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After the noise of recent days, here's my understanding of the lay of the land of EU vaccine supply 
The Commission's aim is to have 80% of over-80s, and health and social care workers vaccinated "by March" (I assume that means end-Feb)
The Commission's aim is to have 80% of over-80s, and health and social care workers vaccinated "by March" (I assume that means end-Feb)
Looking at Eurostat data, there are roughly 26m over-80s in the EU, and around 21m who work in human health, residential and social care
Not all of these workers will be in frontline jobs requiring vaccination, but it's a rough estimate
So 80% is a target of 38m by end-Feb
Not all of these workers will be in frontline jobs requiring vaccination, but it's a rough estimate
So 80% is a target of 38m by end-Feb
Latest data show 10m have been vaccinated in the EU as of 24-27 Jan (national data comes in at different times), so more than a quarter of the way there
The other aim is to have 70% of adults vaccinated "by September" (again I assume end-August)
This is ~250m people
The other aim is to have 70% of adults vaccinated "by September" (again I assume end-August)
This is ~250m people
To meet this target, with around 240m adults left to go, the EU needs to be vaccinating around 40m per month over the next six months
It looks a big ask based on the current rate, but supply is going to ramp up and processes will smoothe out
It looks a big ask based on the current rate, but supply is going to ramp up and processes will smoothe out
On to supply itself. Lots of drama this week with the AZ vaccine.
The company had pledged 160m doses by end-July (subject to 'best effort'), i.e. 80m in each of the first two quarters
It's now delivering 31m in Q1, which is why the Commission is so furious
The company had pledged 160m doses by end-July (subject to 'best effort'), i.e. 80m in each of the first two quarters
It's now delivering 31m in Q1, which is why the Commission is so furious
That said, even if AZ only delivers another 31m in Q2, the EU should still have enough supply to hit its 70% target for adults by end-August
Pfizer has pledged to deliver 200m in this period (despite disruption) and Moderna a further 80m
Pfizer has pledged to deliver 200m in this period (despite disruption) and Moderna a further 80m
Plus, there's the J&J vaccine, which if approved would add more
Even if they all undershoot, the EU should still have far more vaccines than needed for the 250m target, which is credit to the Commission's diversification strategy
Even if they all undershoot, the EU should still have far more vaccines than needed for the 250m target, which is credit to the Commission's diversification strategy
Of course, it all depends on delivery and member states' ability to get it administered (that's a separate and v complicated issue)
There's currently a big gap between the EU's best performer (
= 5 per 100,000) and worst (
=0.42)
Most are in the 2-3 per 100,000 range
There's currently a big gap between the EU's best performer (
= 5 per 100,000) and worst (=0.42)Most are in the 2-3 per 100,000 range
The slow start is very frustrating and it's understandable that tempers have flaired
It's also unhelpful for EU politicians to keep saying 'it's not a race' - it makes them seem complacent
It's also unhelpful for EU politicians to keep saying 'it's not a race' - it makes them seem complacent
And to be clear, the Commission has said:
'Vaccination is not a race between countries but is a race against time.' 100% agree
They need to repeat both parts of this more often.
'Vaccination is not a race between countries but is a race against time.' 100% agree
They need to repeat both parts of this more often.
Ultimately, although there's huge uncertainty, reduced AZ supply alone doesn't look like it will jeopardise hitting the Commission's targets
However, we should definitely ask whether those targets are ambitious enough and whether MS can deliver those vaccines when they arrive
However, we should definitely ask whether those targets are ambitious enough and whether MS can deliver those vaccines when they arrive
