Read on Twitter
Later this year, many liberal democracies will face a massive cultural, political and health challenge: Everyone who wants a vaccine will have had one (willingness below, US is about 56%) but it won’t be enough to reach population herd immunity. What then? THREAD 1/9
At this point, EVERYONE will want the economy/society opened because they think they’re safe, either because they’re vaccinated against COVID or because they think it’s a myth or they’ve been against lockdown all along. So everything opens way up and COVID-19 or one of its 2/9
faster spreading, deadlier variants explodes among the unvaccinated. By definition, this population is skeptical of public health and government intervention more generally. Many won’t wear masks or socially distance and as for test, trace, and isolate…forget it. 3/9
Illiberal democracies and autocracies don’t face this challenge because their populations are more compliant with public health edicts (or else). Liberal Western democracies value freedom and diversity more, obey government less..what do they do here? 4/9 https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/03/coronavirus-and-future-democracy-europe
Let the unvaccinated reap what they sow? Not ethically acceptable, public health is for everyone (The clue is in the name). And anyway, as long as the virus is circulating it carries the potential to overload hospitals and escape vaccines through mutation, harming everyone. 5/9
Some governments will try positive incentives to promote vaccinations (e.g., cash payments), but others will apply some degree of pressure, maybe flight bans, maybe fines, maybe preventing unvaccinated kids from attending school. This is where things could explode. 6/9
The unvaccinated will embrace a range of politics, but anger and distrust will be common themes. Conspiracy theories will spread that the virus, the vaccine, or both were engineered to harm them. Government pressure to get vaccinated could be gas on the fire. 7/9
Millions of people who are already alienated and rageful and also perhaps recently bereaved could LOSE IT. That likely means violence, both intrapersonal (assaulting people who request mask wearing) and political (riots against governments, attacks on individual officials). 8/9
Luck could save some democracies from this (variants don’t emerge, warm weather suppresses spread), but national governments should be planning for this challenge now rather than counting on luck. And to help us “not go there” please get vaccinated when you have the chance. 9/9
