In October, the ruling to almost entirely ban abortion in Poland politicised many people who might not think of themselves as "political". Now that the ruling has come into force, with no possibility of appeal, the key question is whether this wide activation can be sustained.

Above all, this is a question of women's rights. But it also has great significance for Polish politics more broadly. Unusually, PiS is against the majority of Polish society on this issue (to appease radical allies). It still has potential to bring about the party's downfall.

PiS took a major hit in the polls during the October wave of protests. Since then, it has made a partial recovery. If the mass mobilisation returns, then the damage might be permanent. In PiS's favour, elections are not until 2023 and the opposition remains divided and weak.