Weekly French Covid thread. It is probable that France will be placed in a 3rd lockdown in a few days. With the mood of the country turning sour – only 40% support a new “confinement”- the government faces an agonising decision with profound economic/political implications. 1/10

The Covid figures in France are worsening – over 20,200 cases a day in the last 7 days after 18,900 last week. They aren't yet disastrous but the UK variant is spreading fast (1 in 10 cases in Paris area). A preventative lockdown seems certain but how strict and how long? 2/10

The health minister, Olivier Véran, will give a press conference at 2pm today. He may give hints on what is coming but the decision is Macron’s and not yet made. He is reported to be fearful of widespread disobedience/ even violent protest. 3/10

The French vaccination programme is still much criticised with dozens of reports of delays, postponements and unanswered phones. But France has now "first-vaccinated" about 1,200,000 people – well ahead of its modest schedule. Circa 15,000 have had the second jab. 4/10

The EU-AstraZeneca row over reduced vaccine supplies will have some effect on the French programme but it’s unclear how much. France was intending mostly to use the Pfizer vaccine until March. It has something like 900,000 Pfizer jabs “in stock” with more arriving each day. 5/10

The key pandemic figures – cases, deaths, hospital/ intensive care populations – have all risen in the last week. ICU bed occupation (the figure most closely watched by the government) has jumped to over 3,000 for the first time since early December. 6/10

It is clear that the 6pm-6am curfew is not holding back or reversing the spread of the virus. And the UK and other variants threaten to create the kind of conflagration already seen in Britain and Ireland. 7/10

The average number of cases in the last 7 days was 20,248, compared to 18,907 last week and 17,764, 15,859, 13,258 in previous weeks. Deaths are averaging 400.5 a day, compared to previous weekly figs of 389, 353 and 307.6.
French Covid deaths since March 1 are 74,456.
8/10

The pressure on hospitals and intensive care, stable for weeks, is rising rapidly. There were 3,107 C19 patients in ICU last night, compared to 2,876 seven six days ago. The hospital C19 population is 1,434 up at 27,169.
9/10

Conclusion: We are in for a long, hard haul. What was left of the mood of national unity is being chipped away by time, boredom and attacks by opposition pols, some justified, some cynical and misleading. Hang in there.

10/10